Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94018587a151776131cf27e14f96d810fa562ef205c5cbe340adb18b36b52c06
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,940
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,602
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,940 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 3c | 485.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 43c | 348.96$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 42c | 251.01$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.32 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 223.76$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.04 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 60c | 207.12$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.64 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 8c | 173.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 68c | 169.54$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.01 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a8…c5b9backed Yes | 36c | 153.27$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.53 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 42c | 140.11$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.77 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd404…4e3bbacked Yes | 58c | 138.31$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 69c | 122.77$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.06 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 70c | 120.72$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.22 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 117.9$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.19 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 56c | 111.54$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.61 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 35c | 107.71$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.27 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 56c | 107$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.21 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 104$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.88 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 42c | 102.98$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.28 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 57c | 101$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.68 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 27c | 99.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.19 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes | 50c | 99.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 54c | 85.23$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 37c | 85$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.75 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 57c | 84.47$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.77 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 82$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…3d68backed Yes | 28c | 79.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +20.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 32c | 75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 38c | 74.62$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 30c | 73.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 31c | 71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 57c | 69.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.89 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2837…fd84backed No | 65c | 67.2$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.67 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 42c | 61.58$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.71 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed Yes | 21c | 61.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 69c | 60.62$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 44c | 60.05$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 41c | 59.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.29 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 36c | 58.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked Yes | 54c | 58.07$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed Yes | 41c | 56.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 44c | 56.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd9…3c35backed No | 72c | 55.38$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 64c | 54.23$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bee…e91ebacked Yes | 57c | 53.58$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 58c | 52.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.65 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bab…5e85backed No | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 50cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34c4…9c93backed No | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89cc…9e01backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 54c | 47.85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 60c | 43.56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 35c | 40.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 36c | 40.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 43c | 39.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 70c | 38.8$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10d6…b92cbacked Yes | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 36c | 38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 53c | 37.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…8c58backed Yes | 41c | 35.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 41c | 35.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 58c | 35.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 43c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 57c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 61c | 33.96$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 41c | 33.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 41c | 33.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 61c | 33.71$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb0…bfbfbacked Yes | 31c | 33.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +189.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 64c | 32.49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 65c | 31.91$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 62c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 45c | 28.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 51c | 28.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 69c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 57c | 26.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c86…eb28backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a05…9caebacked Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…74f9backed No | 67c | 24.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 44c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc65e…0b4ebacked No | 69c | 21.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +26%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 195 | 65.6%128 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 78c | 18.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…4331backed Yes | 58c | 17.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C or below on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 39°C on June 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.