Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C or below on August 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6420393f10dc774cac3fc6e04b96988e7cbe86dfedbbe55f2d612d554b8fd6d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,169
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,906
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,169 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 27c | 1,052$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.91 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 7c | 475.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.56 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 7c | 267.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 71c | 240$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.93 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 72c | 208.13$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.68 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 8c | 190$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 76c | 174.32$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.63 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 70c | 148$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 78c | 133.93$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 24c | 118.24$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 72c | 111.93$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.75 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed Yes | 27c | 104.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 38c | 104.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 66c | 95$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.15 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 14c | 94.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 28c | 84.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 24c | 81.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed No | 71c | 78.24$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.69 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 22c | 77.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 67c | 65.27$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 70c | 56.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 26c | 55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 66c | 52.72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.01 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 65c | 49.75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4647…d97fbacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 105 | 60%63 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68b4…6ec9backed No | 66c | 36.74$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 72cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 63c | 33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f7…c14bbacked No | 78c | 28.71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 109 | 73.4%80 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 73c | 25.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 71c | 21.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf1…7cb7backed No | 69c | 21.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 91 | 69.2%63 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…a722backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 67c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 60c | 17.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 76c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked No | 71c | 15.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C or below on August 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on August 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on August 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.