Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on August 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07faacc9d9396974e8dc72560ebb0780d149adc7bc14bbf946e8f9e98b8b996d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,524
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,383
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,524 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 11c | 669.66$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.11 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 7c | 440.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 50c | 421.29$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.47 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 63c | 357.55$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.76 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 26c | 314.26$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.26 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 16c | 287.34$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.74 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 45c | 244.21$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.32 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 37c | 235$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.95 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 40c | 228.99$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.42 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 72c | 202.43$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.09 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 38c | 200$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.68 | 136 | 37.5%51 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 56c | 183$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.48 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 71c | 182.63$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.3 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44a5…abfdbacked No | 57c | 145$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 35c | 140.61$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.26 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 29c | 134.71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.11 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x462d…741cbacked Yes | 39c | 129.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.86 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 17c | 127.68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.8 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 62c | 126.83$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.83 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 69c | 126$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.76 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9447…48d6backed Yes | 11c | 121.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.66 | 75 | 12%9 W · 66 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked No | 14c | 120$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 31c | 117.47$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.97 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed Yes | 23c | 105.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.53 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 44c | 103$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.68 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 77c | 102.1$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.31 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.49 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8192…871ebacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 37c | 99.91$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.94 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 15c | 95.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 17c | 89.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.88 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 17c | 85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.45 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 25c | 81.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.79 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 70c | 80.93$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.88 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 29c | 80$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.8 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed Yes | 57c | 75.19$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.06 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 44c | 74.32$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.64 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ff…238dbacked Yes | 53c | 70.06$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.16 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 51c | 67.74$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 37c | 65.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.87 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb56c…30f3backed Yes | 78c | 62.8$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 59c | 61.34$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.98 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 50.61$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.58 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 29c | 50.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.62 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 28c | 46.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.76 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 50c | 46.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed Yes | 44c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 67c | 44.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.53 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 44.06$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4647…d97fbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 105 | 60%63 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f7…1c76backed Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 77c | 34.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 51c | 32.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 59c | 31.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 59c | 31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 56c | 29.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 78c | 28.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 76c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf444…8d4abacked No | 73c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 49 | 71.4%35 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 57c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 59c | 25.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 78c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…63a4backed No | 63c | 19.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 115 | 25.2%29 W · 86 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 77c | 15.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x761a…e1f3backed Yes | 72c | 15.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on August 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C or below on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on August 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.