Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on August 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x294b2179ce4dbcc6d28336e4c67ba94a17e54dc472430cafca09d7f92d5681af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,739
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,146
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,739 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 43c | 1,153$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 42c | 514.37$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.51 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 64c | 489.52$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.08 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 29c | 405.14$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.74 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 59c | 256.21$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.14 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 56c | 231$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.64 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 44c | 229.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 56c | 214$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.84 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 46c | 210.53$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.3 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…16f9backed No | 76c | 196.6$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.93 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 55c | 165$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.93 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 31c | 164$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.84 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 35c | 162.61$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.11 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 43c | 160.6$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.99 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44a5…abfdbacked No | 57c | 157.57$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.36 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 42c | 139.89$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 53c | 128.45$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.22 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 56c | 128$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.52 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 54c | 127.2$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.2 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 55c | 124.47$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.87 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 51c | 123$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.84 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 58c | 121$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.82 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 52c | 120.77$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.21 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 57c | 114.04$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.06 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 67c | 113$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 47c | 111.89$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.19 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 40c | 104.12$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.63 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5844…5bd4backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 62c | 98.56$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.35 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 47c | 96.28$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.16 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 35c | 95.11$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 37c | 95.08$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 57c | 87.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa71d…29f0backed No | 47c | 87.76$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.51 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 48c | 81.5$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.06 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 71c | 81$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 60c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8192…871ebacked Yes | 48c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 33c | 70.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 38c | 68.45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.47 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9248…6955backed Yes | 49c | 67.35$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0be5…893cbacked No | 52c | 65.75$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.56 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 15c | 65.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…17abbacked Yes | 63c | 62.18$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.37 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 54c | 61.71$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.51 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 44c | 58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 45c | 57.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 56c | 57.37$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.47 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x518c…d366backed Yes | 56c | 55.68$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.18 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 55c | 55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.67 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed Yes | 47c | 54.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…a2bebacked No | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 136 | 37.5%51 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 45c | 49.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 41c | 48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed Yes | 52c | 44.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 54c | 44.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 27c | 44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 47c | 40.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4647…d97fbacked No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 105 | 60%63 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce5…6233backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 135 | 59.3%80 W · 55 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked No | 64c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 39.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 58c | 38.27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 55c | 38.11$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 29c | 36.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 40c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 50c | 36.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 56c | 36.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed Yes | 52c | 35.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 39c | 33.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 67c | 33.36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 32.26$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6a…b380backed Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked No | 56c | 29.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0d…849cbacked No | 56c | 28.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…d8e3backed No | 57c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43eb…3d85backed No | 51c | 26.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 72c | 24.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 47c | 22.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 63c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 56c | 21.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97a5…4dbfbacked No | 54c | 21.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd63a…90a6backed No | 63c | 19.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 72cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3473…e864backed No | 52c | 19.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 111 | 34.2%38 W · 73 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3a…cccabacked No | 63c | 15.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on August 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C or below on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on August 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on August 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.