Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on July 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x642f91d01c000d02b83efbd6708582b492863801a95f0ded61df2fa141f9950b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,268
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,555
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,268 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 26c | 1,440$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.65 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 29c | 573.81$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.24 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 33c | 565.06$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.88 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 65c | 451.73$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.41 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 74c | 380$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.8 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 21c | 362$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.33 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xecab…5b8ebacked Yes | 30c | 237.97$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.86 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 217$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.52 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 36c | 202.13$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.65 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 68c | 193.89$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.42 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 32c | 186$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.52 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 74c | 184$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.84 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 24c | 182.02$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.23 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ba…cca4backed Yes | 34c | 180.4$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…9a58backed Yes | 34c | 177.97$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.7 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 29c | 160$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 64c | 160$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 26c | 153.16$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.21 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 35c | 150$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 66c | 146$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 141.12$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.38 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 74c | 135.13$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.13 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 77c | 134.55$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.84 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x335c…733fbacked Yes | 23c | 134.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.26 | 102 | 62.7%64 W · 38 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 31c | 134.13$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.23 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 29c | 119.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.67 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3156…8f96backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 86 | 20.9%18 W · 68 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed Yes | 11c | 98.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 66c | 85$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.55 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 31c | 83.44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 61c | 80.24$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.52 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 66c | 80$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 63c | 70$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e88…697dbacked Yes | 33c | 65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 83 | 43.4%36 W · 47 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…4122backed No | 69c | 58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 29c | 57.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 33c | 56.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 28c | 51.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked Yes | 34c | 50.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 26c | 49.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked No | 74c | 48.13$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 34c | 45.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6415…e36bbacked Yes | 31c | 41.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…3b13backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd73…3cc0backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 69 | 68.1%47 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd41…ea0bbacked Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 77c | 36.58$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 74c | 34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 75c | 33.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 78c | 33.16$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 33c | 32.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 64c | 31.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 75c | 31.79$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed No | 75c | 21.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 76c | 20.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked No | 80c | 20.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0294…76a0backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10a6…9c59backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 159 | 61.6%98 W · 61 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8c5fbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x326c…ef55backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 153 | 45.1%69 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 69c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x348c…8633backed No | 66c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 71c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 73c | 14.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 72c | 14.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.03 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on July 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on July 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C or higher on July 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.