Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6430b704c82e7811db229cdadd71c5de4b3a3229a137930f8725423ce28563e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,946
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,697
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,946 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes | 42c | 2,133$889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,244.43 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3c…ca16backed No | 2c | 816.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 149 | 34.2%51 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 43c | 500.98$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.44 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 60c | 500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 59c | 458$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.17 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 57c | 413.13$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.41 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 60c | 400$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc86d…2e76backed No | 12c | 200.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 16c | 194.04$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.92 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 58c | 160$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.8 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 19c | 143.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 138.88$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.16 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 48c | 124$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.9 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 50c | 120.34$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.58 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 46c | 118.2$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.8 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 11c | 116.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 30c | 110.48$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 46c | 100.42$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.42 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 24c | 100.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked Yes | 38c | 95$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.9 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…e2bdbacked Yes | 64c | 93.23$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.23 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +20.6wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 33c | 92.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.29 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 55c | 79$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.45 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 36c | 69.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 43c | 66.05$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.59 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb251…caa4backed No | 60c | 57.34$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 44c | 54.45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 32c | 52.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 20c | 50.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7071…91dfbacked Yes | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -6.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -40%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked No | 54c | 48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 69 | 66.7%46 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 39c | 47.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.77 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x069b…3b3bbacked No | 34c | 46.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes | 66c | 46.26$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 34c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 36c | 44.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 28c | 43.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 46c | 38.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.89 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 60c | 37.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 54c | 37.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc7…147ebacked Yes | 71c | 36.53$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 59c | 34.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b9…c657backed No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3588…fb71backed No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.35per pick | 49cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 60c | 33.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 60c | 31.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 78c | 30.16$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 45c | 28.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x634d…4d02backed Yes | 68c | 28.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 127 | 47.2%60 W · 67 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55bc…52d8backed Yes | 52c | 27.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2350…a351backed Yes | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 24.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9b63…c6adbacked Yes | 68c | 22.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa109…7e42backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 110 | 68.2%75 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80db…4a73backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 64c | 18.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 75c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79ce…506cbacked Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…8146backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 32°C on July 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.