TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Detroit Tigersof Seattle Mariners, Detroit Tigers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,333
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,209

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,333 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2005…75eabacked Seattle Mariners32c3,386$1,082 inLost-$1,082.248,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Detroit Tigers69c2,350$1,626 inWon+$723.924,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Seattle Mariners46c1,867$856 inLost-$856.258,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Detroit Tigers66c1,823$1,211 inWon+$612.494,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Detroit Tigers52c1,660$862 inWon+$797.628,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Seattle Mariners23c445.59$102 inLost-$102.3612,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Seattle Mariners32c443$142 inLost-$142.113,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Detroit Tigers63c327.49$205 inWon+$122.0611,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c58…e330backed Detroit Tigers78c291.29$227 inWon+$64.0888053.8%473 W · 407 L+41.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Seattle Mariners51c237.72$121 inLost-$121.2587352.7%460 W · 413 L+9.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6be…f6a3backed Seattle Mariners10c199.99$20 inLost-$2011648.3%56 W · 60 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Seattle Mariners36c137.38$49 inLost-$49.4610,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x167a…d542backed Detroit Tigers40c122$49 inWon+$73.230340.6%123 W · 180 L-16.4wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-11.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e2f…f9babacked Seattle Mariners60c108.86$65 inLost-$65.3572655.4%402 W · 324 L+40.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+6.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Seattle Mariners31c96$29 inLost-$29.461,81449.1%891 W · 923 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xca2b…3489backed Detroit Tigers55c45$25 inWon+$20.2529242.5%124 W · 168 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick43cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Seattle Mariners50c32.98$17 inLost-$16.611,92717.2%331 W · 1,596 L-320.3wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-64.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x7b95…5733backed Detroit Tigers75c30.09$23 inWon+$7.5621055.2%116 W · 94 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x07cd…fbebbacked Detroit Tigers70c28.54$20 inWon+$8.5643560%261 W · 174 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.