MLB · resolved market
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e6344aeea0246cf39d0e5e4a54645558fa4e759096ae7228cba3d267820300b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Detroit Tigersof Seattle Mariners, Detroit Tigers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,651
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,639
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,651 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Seattle Mariners | 24c | 3,834$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920.16 | 306 | 47.4%145 W · 161 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Detroit Tigers | 75c | 2,878$2,161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$716.92 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eed…85a9backed Seattle Mariners | 23c | 2,356$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.95 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Seattle Mariners | 36c | 1,645$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.2 | 233 | 51.1%119 W · 114 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Detroit Tigers | 64c | 1,561$993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.01 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Detroit Tigers | 73c | 1,483$1,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.1 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Detroit Tigers | 76c | 876.82$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.2 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac65…cfe6backed Detroit Tigers | 63c | 761.02$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.02 | 137 | 59.1%81 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Detroit Tigers | 62c | 681.01$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.04 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Seattle Mariners | 33c | 521.4$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.74 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Seattle Mariners | 35c | 477.11$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.95 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Seattle Mariners | 25c | 461$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.25 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Seattle Mariners | 33c | 451.05$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.45 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Seattle Mariners | 36c | 374.02$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.35 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Detroit Tigers | 68c | 360.73$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.63 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa69d…228ebacked Seattle Mariners | 39c | 260$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.4 | 193 | 35.8%69 W · 124 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Detroit Tigers | 23c | 212$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.24 | 303 | 40.6%123 W · 180 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Detroit Tigers | 72c | 208.33$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.33 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Seattle Mariners | 54c | 203.7$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Detroit Tigers | 62c | 200$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.36 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Detroit Tigers | 63c | 180$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.6 | 477 | 43%205 W · 272 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca2…03cfbacked Detroit Tigers | 31c | 159.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.59 | 208 | 43.3%90 W · 118 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Detroit Tigers | 37c | 138.65$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.35 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Seattle Mariners | 40c | 129$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Detroit Tigers | 64c | 115.53$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.91 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Seattle Mariners | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Seattle Mariners | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.71 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Seattle Mariners | 19c | 91.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Detroit Tigers | 63c | 75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Seattle Mariners | 45c | 69.49$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.29 | 873 | 52.7%460 W · 413 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb767…d848backed Detroit Tigers | 77c | 64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 116 | 62.9%73 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Detroit Tigers | 62c | 60.93$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Seattle Mariners | 34c | 56.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Detroit Tigers | 73c | 52.35$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Seattle Mariners | 26c | 47.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca6…6d74backed Seattle Mariners | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Detroit Tigers | 65c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 777 | 52.1%405 W · 372 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1b…106cbacked Detroit Tigers | 77c | 20.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 86 | 69.8%60 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ce…41acbacked Seattle Mariners | 77c | 17.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 101 | 58.4%59 W · 42 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b95…5733backed Detroit Tigers | 65c | 16.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Detroit Tigers | 74c | 16.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 11.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit TigersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.