MLB · resolved market
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba74f3e393e41c10d49773720f94b7113ff413cb7fd7e7a6ff893ca2afbc9b6b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,751
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,873
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,751 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6498…8910backed Under | 61c | 6,000$3,649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,648.95 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 44c | 4,579$1,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,994.81 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 40c | 4,273$1,707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,565.85 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 48c | 4,125$1,990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,135.65 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 59c | 3,154$1,856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,298.06 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 57c | 1,160$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.81 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 884.85$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.67 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 52c | 692.91$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.94 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 40c | 628.8$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.52 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked Under | 40c | 507.08$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.83 | 215 | 50.2%108 W · 107 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 59c | 500$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 50c | 450.23$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.78 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7677…37c0backed Under | 42c | 400$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 328 | 50%164 W · 164 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a6…0009backed Under | 41c | 354.91$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.51 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Under | 42c | 350.08$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.01 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 40c | 300$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed Over | 39c | 280$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.8 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fd…3e24backed Over | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b95…5733backed Over | 47c | 169.69$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.45 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 59c | 162$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.91 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed Under | 42c | 156$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.52 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 52c | 119$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.62 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 33c | 111.77$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 49c | 111.15$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.38 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 41c | 105.12$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.1 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8328…e5ebbacked Under | 40c | 102.33$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.93 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 44c | 100.02$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Over | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 449 | 49.2%221 W · 228 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 60c | 98.33$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.47 | 873 | 52.7%460 W · 413 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46b4…72e9backed Under | 44c | 90.55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.84 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 55c | 83.8$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.04 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Under | 59c | 83$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.97 | 303 | 40.6%123 W · 180 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Under | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 321 | 66.4%213 W · 108 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5db9…190ebacked Over | 40c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 220 | 64.1%141 W · 79 L | +10.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…fe2fbacked Over | 51c | 74.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 151 | 43.7%66 W · 85 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Over | 51c | 62.16$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.58 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 61c | 61.36$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Over | 57c | 57.91$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x348c…c8efbacked Under | 40c | 56.28$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 40c | 52.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Under | 42c | 50.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 55c | 48.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081b…1c6abacked Under | 63c | 42.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Under | 26c | 42.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 477 | 43%205 W · 272 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3894…decfbacked Over | 46c | 40.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.91 | 375 | 51.2%192 W · 183 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Under | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 40c | 36.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8263…e0f1backed Over | 51c | 34.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 347 | 54.8%190 W · 157 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 47c | 33.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Under | 64c | 31.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 435 | 60%261 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Under | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 91 | 41.8%38 W · 53 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Over | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x848f…612fbacked Over | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5894…c28ebacked Over | 55c | 29.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…e5b4backed Over | 50c | 28.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 446 | 51.6%230 W · 216 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x138d…b23ebacked Under | 43c | 28.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf0…fdbebacked Over | 43c | 25.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 82 | 64.6%53 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7885…1173backed Over | 48c | 25.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 133 | 57.9%77 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 52c | 22.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 57c | 20.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…b8a1backed Under | 72c | 15.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 284 | 56.7%161 W · 123 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 11.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit TigersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.