MLB · resolved market
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x28ef325410d76984eabf49f8e197ff28f528e5f5212eddb0555891a89d3bf779
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,982
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,977
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,982 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 37c | 6,927$2,553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,553.07 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6498…8910backed Over | 62c | 6,000$3,720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,280 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 70c | 329.61$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.88 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 53c | 283$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.01 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 25c | 244.8$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.57 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Under | 20c | 244$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 303 | 40.6%123 W · 180 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 73c | 212$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.52 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 68c | 209.84$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.68 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 61c | 181.93$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.24 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Under | 22c | 155.09$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.13 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 78c | 153.79$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 70c | 149.05$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.79 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 69c | 122.1$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.1 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 79c | 119.49$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.09 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 35c | 75.46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.41 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 32c | 74.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Under | 41c | 70.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 64c | 66.76$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 26c | 66.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Under | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 276 | 46.7%129 W · 147 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Under | 23c | 46.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31a0…5911backed Under | 31c | 41.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 35c | 38.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 873 | 52.7%460 W · 413 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…b8a1backed Under | 30c | 36.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 284 | 56.7%161 W · 123 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6123…8b33backed Over | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 268 | 53.7%144 W · 124 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Over | 68c | 28.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 477 | 43%205 W · 272 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…9197backed Over | 75c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Over | 70c | 18.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x453c…b749backed Over | 67c | 17.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 70c | 15.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Over | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 11.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit TigersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.