NBA · resolved market
Spread: Trail Blazers (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64533652c1abb6a05ef6de9abc5a3c0ccb67ad86590b5ac5c12abc228ad3d4a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Trail Blazersof Trail Blazers, Lakers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $156,664
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $156,046
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $156,664 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Lakers | 46c | 40,453$18,801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,800.94 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49ce…9968backed Trail Blazers | 53c | 40,000$21,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,800 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 51cpaid | +98.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc10…3f05backed Lakers | 49c | 20,000$9,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,800 | 96 | 50%48 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0584…de3ebacked Trail Blazers | 53c | 18,721$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,720.67 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed7…e617backed Lakers | 47c | 13,629$6,406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,405.63 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Trail Blazers | 54c | 9,038$4,849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,189 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Lakers | 48c | 7,494$3,594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,594.46 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Trail Blazers | 53c | 5,877$3,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,762.19 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Trail Blazers | 49c | 4,241$2,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,165.93 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Trail Blazers | 53c | 3,914$2,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,837.93 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Lakers | 47c | 2,538$1,192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,191.76 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Lakers | 47c | 2,500$1,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,175 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Lakers | 46c | 2,174$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.04 | 662 | 50.8%336 W · 326 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Trail Blazers | 52c | 1,999$1,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$959.52 | 762 | 49.5%377 W · 385 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Lakers | 47c | 1,577$736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$736.05 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Trail Blazers | 51c | 1,191$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.77 | 192 | 49.5%95 W · 97 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Lakers | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 157 | 45.2%71 W · 86 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Trail Blazers | 51c | 971.41$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.99 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Trail Blazers | 54c | 696.5$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.6 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Lakers | 47c | 519$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.13 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Lakers | 46c | 385.74$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.44 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed Lakers | 45c | 319$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.55 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f79…7ed4backed Lakers | 47c | 236.23$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.03 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -9.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Lakers | 53c | 227$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.29 | 597 | 43.6%260 W · 337 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ae…84cebacked Trail Blazers | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +32%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Trail Blazers | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 456 | 47.1%215 W · 241 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Lakers | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 418 | 48.3%202 W · 216 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0c…6825backed Lakers | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0495…c68fbacked Lakers | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Lakers | 50c | 99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.51 | 381 | 51.2%195 W · 186 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54ae…32c2backed Trail Blazers | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb225…d86bbacked Trail Blazers | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9bc…45c3backed Lakers | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x096a…b22bbacked Lakers | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73b9…3ba6backed Trail Blazers | 52c | 36.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe834…6407backed Lakers | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3854…862dbacked Trail Blazers | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x624a…287cbacked Trail Blazers | 53c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…3183backed Trail Blazers | 52c | 21.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf661…d774backed Trail Blazers | 53c | 20.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-2.5)this page
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-1.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-3.5)Trail Blazers won
- Trail Blazers vs. LakersTrail Blazers won
- Trail Blazers vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 115.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Lakers: O/U 223.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Lakers: O/U 224.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Lakers: O/U 225.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Lakers: O/U 226.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.