Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: OG vs Ivory - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64adb4934664a14d1c97357654ad459d7b42a646fc24b2799617dfa9f07f311f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ivoryof OG, Ivory
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,161
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,985
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,161 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7d11…99cabacked OG | 28c | 5,407$1,511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,511.1 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2775…3652backed OG | 55c | 3,447$1,883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,883.19 | 330 | 41.8%138 W · 192 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde1f…d634backed Ivory | 21c | 2,238$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,764.02 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f071backed OG | 66c | 2,114$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,399.82 | 344 | 68.9%237 W · 107 L | +26.3wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa27c…ab67backed OG | 71c | 2,000$1,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,420 | 799 | 59.4%475 W · 324 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69bf…0c5dbacked Ivory | 29c | 1,915$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,359.51 | 365 | 47.7%174 W · 191 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18bb…e5cdbacked Ivory | 20c | 1,911$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,525.55 | 130 | 20%26 W · 104 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3d…cfffbacked Ivory | 58c | 1,408$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.26 | 367 | 59.1%217 W · 150 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked OG | 35c | 1,199$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.27 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c7b…6e9dbacked OG | 74c | 1,148$849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$848.51 | 252 | 46.8%118 W · 134 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x135f…528cbacked Ivory | 18c | 1,060$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$871.1 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed Ivory | 25c | 1,054$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$793.69 | 810 | 29.4%238 W · 572 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc9…e444backed OG | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 132 | 28.8%38 W · 94 L | -9.7wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -40%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f12…3e35backed OG | 78c | 996.1$772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$772.03 | 99 | 46.5%46 W · 53 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…2812backed OG | 43c | 900$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Ivory | 56c | 895.84$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.47 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed OG | 4c | 729.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 613 | 2.1%13 W · 600 L | -23.4wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61fa…7f62backed Ivory | 52c | 708.16$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.3 | 464 | 51.5%239 W · 225 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8041…05d6backed Ivory | 67c | 597.07$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.44 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebf8…7d2bbacked Ivory | 74c | 590.64$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.63 | 105 | 41%43 W · 62 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked Ivory | 27c | 503.69$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.69 | 953 | 42.2%402 W · 551 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Ivory | 72c | 485.32$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.94 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07fa…f5cdbacked Ivory | 48c | 485.03$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.22 | 462 | 40.7%188 W · 274 L | +15.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80ba…2e78backed Ivory | 19c | 370$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.7 | 885 | 39.7%351 W · 534 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Ivory | 48c | 362.29$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.79 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Ivory | 24c | 350$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.83 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ed…7103backed Ivory | 43c | 311.05$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.52 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed OG | 66c | 279.13$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.75 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9120…ae70backed OG | 74c | 259.78$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.94 | 210 | 62.4%131 W · 79 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5799…db25backed Ivory | 77c | 254.73$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.44 | 460 | 49.8%229 W · 231 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c07…5feabacked OG | 77c | 216.96$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.06 | 179 | 54.2%97 W · 82 L | -12.6wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11ff…4447backed Ivory | 24c | 200.26$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.64 | 225 | 34.2%77 W · 148 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae1…1e7ebacked OG | 74c | 200$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 329 | 51.7%170 W · 159 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…febfbacked OG | 61c | 160.1$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.66 | 216 | 50.9%110 W · 106 L | -25.3wins | -0.12per pick | 63cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed Ivory | 11c | 150$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.5 | 360 | 44.2%159 W · 201 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8e…9408backed Ivory | 27c | 143.56$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.32 | 962 | 45.5%438 W · 524 L | +22.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked OG | 44c | 142.83$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.66 | 405 | 34.6%140 W · 265 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f0…26edbacked Ivory | 72c | 136.29$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.96 | 338 | 67.8%229 W · 109 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34ec…9468backed OG | 34c | 130.05$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.51 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0f5…9377backed OG | 79c | 124.28$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.77 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b41…2c02backed Ivory | 18c | 115$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.3 | 726 | 37.5%272 W · 454 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f03…77dcbacked OG | 37c | 104.02$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.49 | 292 | 40.4%118 W · 174 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed OG | 73c | 102.51$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.7 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d59…bdf3backed Ivory | 23c | 99.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 675 | 55%371 W · 304 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbc…62a3backed Ivory | 78c | 98.68$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa7…003fbacked Ivory | 26c | 95.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.71 | 450 | 52.4%236 W · 214 L | +13.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa8…d75fbacked Ivory | 29c | 75.93$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.91 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x127e…cca1backed Ivory | 60c | 74.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.75 | 461 | 50.8%234 W · 227 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked OG | 40c | 71.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 690 | 33.3%230 W · 460 L | -27.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked OG | 48c | 70.64$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.91 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a00…e8e7backed Ivory | 22c | 66.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.88 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb64c…393dbacked OG | 41c | 64.17$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 293 | 50.2%147 W · 146 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb97e…262bbacked Ivory | 37c | 63.94$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.28 | 526 | 49.2%259 W · 267 L | +21.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9be…a0c1backed OG | 53c | 63.29$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.56 | 252 | 53.2%134 W · 118 L | +20.3wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79ac…9c87backed OG | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 80 | 40%32 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…9867backed OG | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 925 | 61.2%566 W · 359 L | +53.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Ivory | 26c | 49.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.41 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3be…f543backed Ivory | 60c | 48.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 254 | 57.9%147 W · 107 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7924backed OG | 56c | 48.66$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 507 | 57.4%291 W · 216 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…b766backed Ivory | 53c | 48.25$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 602 | 51.2%308 W · 294 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Ivory | 24c | 47.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.27 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c52…677dbacked OG | 35c | 38.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed OG | 63c | 34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 653 | 37.2%243 W · 410 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc623…9c7dbacked OG | 77c | 25.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 367 | 61%224 W · 143 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: OG vs Ivory - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: OG vs Ivory (BO3) - DreamLeague Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier PlayoffsIvory won
- Dota 2: OG vs Ivory - Game 1 WinnerIvory won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.