Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: OG vs Ivory (BO3) - DreamLeague Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3461e289d238399b9f7eaf701e936c3e6b90809eaa8ada30ca28414728689fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ivoryof OG, Ivory
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,861
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,481
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,861 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed OG | 59c | 997.57$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.59 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2757…55f0backed Ivory | 41c | 902.76$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.58 | 124 | 54.8%68 W · 56 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked OG | 65c | 839.34$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.95 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Ivory | 34c | 691.63$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.67 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77a0…4bfdbacked OG | 64c | 627.3$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.02 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 62cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…2812backed OG | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe203…1b53backed Ivory | 33c | 499.99$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.99 | 108 | 50%54 W · 54 L | +8.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed Ivory | 42c | 472.25$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.36 | 613 | 2.1%13 W · 600 L | -23.4wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91f5…c2fcbacked OG | 3c | 415.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Ivory | 45c | 411.66$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.3 | 713 | 42.5%303 W · 410 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…d853backed Ivory | 43c | 399.99$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228 | 615 | 48.8%300 W · 315 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8041…05d6backed Ivory | 50c | 387.5$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.75 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdde9…f432backed Ivory | 25c | 377.95$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.43 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f17…7035backed OG | 60c | 363.65$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.19 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked OG | 9c | 348.3$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5051…82a6backed OG | 58c | 317.85$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.19 | 204 | 52.5%107 W · 97 L | +12.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1709…c148backed Ivory | 39c | 314.44$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.42 | 483 | 52.4%253 W · 230 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed OG | 56c | 288.05$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.27 | 361 | 38.2%138 W · 223 L | -20.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed OG | 63c | 283.49$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.33 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16d8…ba9ebacked Ivory | 39c | 264.44$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.36 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed Ivory | 11c | 252.73$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.09 | 810 | 29.4%238 W · 572 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8e…9408backed Ivory | 11c | 213.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.63 | 962 | 45.5%438 W · 524 L | +22.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…f7f0backed Ivory | 14c | 203.23$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.78 | 515 | 50.9%262 W · 253 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef00…de7fbacked Ivory | 36c | 202.04$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.8 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb97e…262bbacked Ivory | 34c | 196$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.52 | 526 | 49.2%259 W · 267 L | +21.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c07…5feabacked OG | 62c | 195.44$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.17 | 179 | 54.2%97 W · 82 L | -12.6wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Ivory | 36c | 192.32$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.08 | 479 | 51.8%248 W · 231 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed OG | 65c | 188.76$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.09 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked Ivory | 52c | 179.89$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.48 | 405 | 34.6%140 W · 265 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Ivory | 26c | 169.15$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.53 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d3…b8debacked OG | 61c | 146.95$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.64 | 700 | 52.3%366 W · 334 L | +47.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4898…a723backed OG | 59c | 139.15$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.35 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -5.6wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…a4cbbacked Ivory | 41c | 133.68$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.69 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | -6.2wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Ivory | 39c | 122.87$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.85 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65cf…5cdebacked Ivory | 37c | 107.58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.78 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Ivory | 44c | 106.08$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.41 | 260 | 50.4%131 W · 129 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3685…6d99backed Ivory | 37c | 105.84$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.68 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62a1…d53ebacked Ivory | 38c | 101.94$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.43 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…9867backed OG | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 925 | 61.2%566 W · 359 L | +53.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c42…e05cbacked OG | 56c | 97.36$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bae…61b8backed Ivory | 15c | 96.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.27 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Ivory | 40c | 96.4$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.84 | 410 | 37.3%153 W · 257 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb308…23a6backed Ivory | 38c | 96.28$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.69 | 169 | 39.6%67 W · 102 L | -15.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5d…90b3backed Ivory | 37c | 93.62$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.98 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Ivory | 36c | 83.79$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.72 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Ivory | 41c | 80.17$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.34 | 253 | 49.4%125 W · 128 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed0…b5b8backed Ivory | 41c | 80.13$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.28 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.40per pick | 46cpaid | +85.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked OG | 61c | 80.05$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.83 | 581 | 52.5%305 W · 276 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x127e…cca1backed OG | 64c | 80$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 461 | 50.8%234 W · 227 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06d9…7cfbbacked Ivory | 72c | 67.86$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 201 | 51.2%103 W · 98 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x155b…d7babacked OG | 27c | 64.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 149 | 62.4%93 W · 56 L | +21.8wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xffc4…b347backed OG | 49c | 61.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 294 | 66%194 W · 100 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked Ivory | 72c | 61.58$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed OG | 65c | 58.74$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.18 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked OG | 72c | 58$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.02 | 690 | 33.3%230 W · 460 L | -27.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Ivory | 38c | 57.13$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.43 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed OG | 72c | 57$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.28 | 653 | 37.2%243 W · 410 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed OG | 72c | 55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 360 | 44.2%159 W · 201 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb161…9132backed Ivory | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0133…4d0dbacked Ivory | 58c | 48.83$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6365…df4ebacked OG | 57c | 47.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 225 | 38.7%87 W · 138 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb64c…393dbacked OG | 62c | 47.28$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 293 | 50.2%147 W · 146 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a00…d958backed Ivory | 64c | 47.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa86d…249abacked Ivory | 73c | 35.24$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Ivory | 39c | 33.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 245 | 18.8%46 W · 199 L | -31.2wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -46%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x307d…d687backed Ivory | 47c | 30.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf512…5198backed OG | 76c | 27.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 105 | 71.4%75 W · 30 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50d6…f94abacked Ivory | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 56 | 82.1%46 W · 10 L | +10.0wins | +0.18per pick | 64cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7924backed OG | 54c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 507 | 57.4%291 W · 216 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27e9…f09ebacked OG | 61c | 17.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7b…fcc2backed OG | 66c | 15.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: OG vs Ivory (BO3) - DreamLeague Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: OG vs Ivory - Game 1 WinnerIvory won
- Dota 2: OG vs Ivory - Game 2 WinnerIvory won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.