Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: OG vs Ivory - Game 1 Winner

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ade3a13096a2ec6cf0792ab7bf757d7fdbbfc5d06f3b5c95f25ee3bdead29c8

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Ivoryof OG, Ivory
Resolved: Apr 12, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $52,862
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $62,909

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,862 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Dota2
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x66fb…9f72backed OG	20c	14,453$2,826 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,825.8	545	56.5%308 W · 237 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a05…12a2backed Ivory	17c	3,305$578 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,726.85	476	50.8%242 W · 234 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Ivory	20c	2,964$602 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,361.85	810	29.4%238 W · 572 L	-23.5wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked Ivory	19c	1,536$288 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,247.31	670	43.3%290 W · 380 L	-6.8wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-14%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07fa…f5cdbacked Ivory	20c	1,119$224 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$894.91	462	40.7%188 W · 274 L	+15.4wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3dd1…2812backed OG	39c	1,100$425 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$425	118	36.4%43 W · 75 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Ivory	17c	1,096$187 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$909.03	2,378	47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L	+15.8wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked Ivory	77c	985.87$760 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$225.94	774	58.5%453 W · 321 L	+75.1wins	+0.10per pick	49cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3f3d…cfffbacked Ivory	64c	938.92$597 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$342.35	367	59.1%217 W · 150 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c7b…6e9dbacked Ivory	25c	886.4$219 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$667.62	252	46.8%118 W · 134 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Ivory	35c	867.37$301 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$566.81	2,828	43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L	-39.5wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed OG	70c	794.1$559 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$558.77	799	59.4%475 W · 324 L	+4.1wins	+0.01per pick	59cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x61fa…7f62backed Ivory	41c	674.98$279 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$396.19	464	51.5%239 W · 225 L	-12.1wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbaa5…a51abacked OG	67c	662.75$442 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$442.02	366	54.1%198 W · 168 L	-4.3wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked Ivory	10c	591.98$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$532.72	953	42.2%402 W · 551 L	-20.7wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked Ivory	60c	585.42$349 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$236.48	920	56.4%519 W · 401 L	+78.3wins	+0.09per pick	48cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa306…a39dbacked Ivory	30c	548.08$165 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$382.71	105	61%64 W · 41 L	+7.4wins	+0.07per pick	54cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed OG	77c	541.41$417 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$416.89	1,272	45%572 W · 700 L	-40.5wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed OG	80c	450$360 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$360	885	39.7%351 W · 534 L	+7.7wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e4d…1cb0backed Ivory	57c	402.26$228 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$174.13	576	54.5%314 W · 262 L	+29.2wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe33d…9512backed Ivory	33c	301.55$99 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$202.36	32	37.5%12 W · 20 L	-1.6wins	-0.05per pick	43cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5905…a34cbacked OG	75c	267.34$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.81	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	-3.6wins	-0.19per pick	45cpaid	-51.8%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x984b…88fbbacked Ivory	32c	257.84$82 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$175.42	51	60.8%31 W · 20 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf95e…1816backed OG	77c	203$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156.31	42	64.3%27 W · 15 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	65cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked Ivory	45c	202$91 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$111.1	269	56.1%151 W · 118 L	+8.3wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Ivory	19c	158.49$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$128.93	1,901	47.6%905 W · 996 L	+4.6wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9120…ae70backed OG	77c	155.96$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.74	210	62.4%131 W · 79 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	62cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed OG	70c	155.45$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.9	1,797	55.8%1,003 W · 794 L	+37.5wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa62b…0f85backed OG	65c	151.79$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.99	117	42.7%50 W · 67 L	-3.8wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9be…a0c1backed Ivory	20c	132.99$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$105.77	252	53.2%134 W · 118 L	+20.3wins	+0.08per pick	45cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb97e…262bbacked Ivory	30c	128.4$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90.06	526	49.2%259 W · 267 L	+21.1wins	+0.04per pick	45cpaid	+1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d59…bdf3backed Ivory	16c	123.45$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$103.7	675	55%371 W · 304 L	+8.2wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b59…0ba0backed OG	43c	115.87$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.36	277	37.2%103 W · 174 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x848d…9867backed OG	53c	110$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.5	925	61.2%566 W · 359 L	+53.8wins	+0.06per pick	55cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed Ivory	16c	106.83$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$89.74	720	35.1%253 W · 467 L	-24.8wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9eca…5a59backed OG	69c	106.26$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.96	400	51.5%206 W · 194 L	-6.9wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d27…bd5abacked Ivory	73c	100$73 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27	468	72.2%338 W · 130 L	+36.5wins	+0.08per pick	64cpaid	+11.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2c07…5feabacked Ivory	25c	99.37$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$74.53	179	54.2%97 W · 82 L	-12.6wins	-0.07per pick	61cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x72c2…5e74backed OG	59c	98.52$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.13	793	43.6%346 W · 447 L	+38.4wins	+0.05per pick	39cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8e19…d2b0backed Ivory	21c	97.31$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$76.88	125	47.2%59 W · 66 L	-2.8wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dc0…699abacked Ivory	17c	96.2$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$79.95	641	23.4%150 W · 491 L	-18.6wins	-0.03per pick	26cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0702…e5eabacked Ivory	16c	94.96$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$79.77	407	45.5%185 W · 222 L	-1.9wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4f9b…cdeebacked Ivory	61c	94$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.36	690	33.3%230 W · 460 L	-27.9wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked OG	14c	91.05$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.51	1,275	33.5%427 W · 848 L	-15.6wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9688…fd45backed Ivory	25c	85.95$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$64.46	241	38.6%93 W · 148 L	-18.0wins	-0.07per pick	46cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8342…6dc8backed OG	44c	79.61$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.98	480	54%259 W · 221 L	+11.6wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b41…2c02backed Ivory	34c	70.53$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.55	726	37.5%272 W · 454 L	+3.4wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	-4%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Ivory	64c	67.91$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.58	1,260	49.7%626 W · 634 L	+21.7wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24bb…3e49backed Ivory	61c	64$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.12	653	37.2%243 W · 410 L	-15.1wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb0f…b652backed Ivory	57c	63$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.09	225	52.4%118 W · 107 L	+26.0wins	+0.12per pick	41cpaid	+25.2%equal weight	62+0.10 edge/pick
0x8941…83d7backed OG	68c	58.85$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.02	61	67.2%41 W · 20 L	+2.8wins	+0.05per pick	63cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x06d9…7cfbbacked OG	64c	58.7$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.57	201	51.2%103 W · 98 L	-4.9wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb19f…1c86backed Ivory	28c	51.22$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.88	48	37.5%18 W · 30 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	35cpaid	-6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6365…df4ebacked Ivory	35c	31.71$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.61	225	38.7%87 W · 138 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34ec…9468backed Ivory	68c	30.37$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.77	10	60%6 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	60cpaid	-4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9bd9…084fbacked OG	43c	30$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.9	209	54.5%114 W · 95 L	+3.6wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x91e0…26a0backed Ivory	57c	27$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.61	302	50%151 W · 151 L	+11.4wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc63b…6e4ebacked OG	63c	25$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.75	350	32.3%113 W · 237 L	-7.1wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	-22%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed OG	68c	20$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.6	1,013	45.5%461 W · 552 L	-46.3wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Dota 2: OG vs Ivory - Game 1 Winnerthis page
Dota 2: OG vs Ivory (BO3) - DreamLeague Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier PlayoffsIvory won
Dota 2: OG vs Ivory - Game 2 WinnerIvory won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Dota 2: OG vs Ivory - Game 1 Winner

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event