Fifa International · resolved market
Spread: Serbia (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64c14fb14241faa588fa8a0e21c207316e54baf1414aeac461b796234d1a08fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Saudi Arabiaof Serbia, Saudi Arabia
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,350
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,471
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,350 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Serbia | 44c | 906$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.64 | 105 | 58.1%61 W · 44 L | +7.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b49…0397backed Saudi Arabia | 56c | 755$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.2 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Serbia | 21c | 351.05$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.62 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Saudi Arabia | 55c | 296.07$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.13 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f8…ae2ebacked Saudi Arabia | 58c | 282.11$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.81 | 518 | 59.8%310 W · 208 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8918…8824backed Saudi Arabia | 73c | 261.95$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.33 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Saudi Arabia | 55c | 249.99$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 2,411 | 53%1,278 W · 1,133 L | +75.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Saudi Arabia | 56c | 214.05$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.8 | 2,380 | 53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L | +76.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Saudi Arabia | 53c | 204.49$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.57 | 1,560 | 43.8%684 W · 876 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf21…2ed8backed Serbia | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.75 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +78.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9759…cb52backed Serbia | 32c | 154.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 100 | 13%13 W · 87 L | -9.1wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8549…41f8backed Serbia | 42c | 150$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…d080backed Saudi Arabia | 68c | 138.3$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.26 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…da9ebacked Serbia | 43c | 117$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.31 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…eeb8backed Saudi Arabia | 69c | 85$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.35 | 46 | 78.3%36 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 74cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Serbia | 25c | 63.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 740 | 34.1%252 W · 488 L | -36.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…e607backed Serbia | 46c | 55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 102 | 36.3%37 W · 65 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Saudi Arabia | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe96…4a6dbacked Saudi Arabia | 69c | 36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 73cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9775…ed41backed Saudi Arabia | 70c | 28.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7886…b35ebacked Saudi Arabia | 77c | 23.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e52…2320backed Saudi Arabia | 73c | 17.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14b2…e75fbacked Saudi Arabia | 77c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Serbia (-1.5)this page
- Saudi Arabia vs. Serbia: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Saudi Arabia vs. Serbia: O/U 1.5Over won
- Saudi Arabia vs. Serbia: O/U 2.5Over won
- Saudi Arabia vs. Serbia: O/U 3.5Under won
- Saudi Arabia vs. Serbia: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5)Serbia won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.