Fifa International · resolved market
Saudi Arabia vs. Serbia: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42cafd0a0dada885da4103bb921c5bb87ad2f70ada9d3b65fb8b265b100a81a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,766
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,787
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,766 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 58c | 1,648$956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$955.83 | 151 | 41.7%63 W · 88 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 49c | 1,632$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$831.59 | 202 | 62.4%126 W · 76 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 54c | 1,607$865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$742.79 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…d361backed Over | 49c | 1,200$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.99 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa396…0019backed Over | 21c | 485.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 62c | 399.99$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 97 | 59.8%58 W · 39 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Under | 67c | 251.97$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.22 | 63 | 33.3%21 W · 42 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a1…ee48backed Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Over | 42c | 202.53$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.06 | 465 | 25.4%118 W · 347 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d75…1af0backed Over | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f8…2667backed Under | 70c | 172.41$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3b…b968backed Under | 61c | 164.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.86 | 323 | 56%181 W · 142 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9759…cb52backed Over | 34c | 148.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 100 | 13%13 W · 87 L | -9.1wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…82d1backed Under | 71c | 141.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.39 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1650…42f6backed Under | 40c | 126.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.68 | 71 | 22.5%16 W · 55 L | -8.2wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 66c | 123.32$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.48 | 1,711 | 35.2%603 W · 1,108 L | -68.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4820…c613backed Over | 63c | 120$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.6 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 24c | 111.91$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 740 | 34.1%252 W · 488 L | -36.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7baf…99a7backed Over | 19c | 103.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…df51backed Over | 36c | 90.97$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -5.1wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3b14…5301backed Under | 56c | 90.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.89 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefc8…4676backed Under | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Under | 56c | 70.04$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.82 | 125 | 59.2%74 W · 51 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Under | 52c | 67.34$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.04 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 21c | 58.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 105 | 50.5%53 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x811c…fd36backed Under | 79c | 58.23$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 187 | 69.5%130 W · 57 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a4…5e83backed Over | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x134c…eeefbacked Over | 38c | 54.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Over | 28c | 53.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 29c | 53.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 2,380 | 53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L | +76.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 29c | 51.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 823 | 40.9%337 W · 486 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x700a…58a5backed Over | 29c | 51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 481 | 47.8%230 W · 251 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c16…c36fbacked Over | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 53c | 49$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…572dbacked Over | 32c | 46.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 76 | 40.8%31 W · 45 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…eeb8backed Under | 71c | 41.48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 46 | 78.3%36 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 74cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1db2…2415backed Under | 50c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 33c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 363 | 29.8%108 W · 255 L | -17.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1d…7ff3backed Under | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97b3…0d4abacked Under | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5f…08d5backed Under | 73c | 23.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…bf18backed Under | 56c | 21.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 27cpaid | +123.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dda…35d5backed Under | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 60cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 54c | 19.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 2,411 | 53%1,278 W · 1,133 L | +75.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Under | 67c | 17.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Saudi Arabia vs. Serbia: O/U 3.5this page
- Saudi Arabia vs. Serbia: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Saudi Arabia vs. Serbia: O/U 1.5Over won
- Saudi Arabia vs. Serbia: O/U 2.5Over won
- Saudi Arabia vs. Serbia: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5)Serbia won
- Spread: Serbia (-1.5)Saudi Arabia won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.