Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will US Mondorf-les-Bains win on 2026-07-09?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64c27b4af4d216e80ed87086b75bc2693f071e54d2e8406ff83d7616b6a09db0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,968
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,824
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,968 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d47…64eebacked Yes | 24c | 900$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.88 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Yes | 24c | 815.53$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.73 | 142 | 45.8%65 W · 77 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked No | 76c | 635.64$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.31 | 370 | 46.5%172 W · 198 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 2c | 604.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked Yes | 22c | 563.95$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.07 | 144 | 43.8%63 W · 81 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab8…8872backed Yes | 22c | 462.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…4415backed No | 78c | 455.99$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.32 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…5bdfbacked Yes | 21c | 429.19$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.29 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd09…43aabacked Yes | 24c | 335$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.4 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed3…0a22backed No | 76c | 300$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 76c | 269.05$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.57 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 78c | 221.55$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.38 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 78c | 213.73$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.85 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed No | 76c | 213.04$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.13 | 123 | 58.5%72 W · 51 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed No | 77c | 181.1$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.19 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 76c | 180.9$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.42 | 568 | 49.6%282 W · 286 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe11…18cfbacked No | 75c | 180$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e05…2ebcbacked No | 75c | 180$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 64 | 57.8%37 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47fb…0c7bbacked No | 75c | 180$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked Yes | 18c | 165.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 363 | 56.5%205 W · 158 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaffe…7140backed Yes | 22c | 128.84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f81…2bb7backed No | 75c | 109.28$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.32 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Yes | 22c | 98.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 555 | 45.8%254 W · 301 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa807…cc2ebacked Yes | 21c | 94.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 138 | 39.1%54 W · 84 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked No | 76c | 90$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 476 | 49.4%235 W · 241 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Yes | 18c | 73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 69.44$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…7b80backed Yes | 21c | 54.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked No | 78c | 48.97$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 116 | 57.8%67 W · 49 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 76c | 34.61$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eef…5275backed No | 78c | 25.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 30 | 90%27 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 79cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa494…4a1fbacked No | 78c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed No | 79c | 21.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…cac7backed No | 78c | 15.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will US Mondorf-les-Bains win on 2026-07-09?this page
- Will SK Dinamo Tbilisi win on 2026-07-09?Yes won
- Will US Mondorf-les-Bains vs. SK Dinamo Tbilisi end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.