Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on July 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64e510a37ff3fc6fbd0ea846f98404133ceca05a40e395ef93383d63c7b48f24
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,912
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,663
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,912 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xda18…4282backed No | 60c | 1,763$1,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,064.28 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 62c | 724.73$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.56 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 60c | 676.31$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.55 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 19c | 525.88$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.48 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 68c | 419.97$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.76 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 7c | 400.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 28c | 348.57$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.06 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 43c | 227$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.75 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 42c | 186.37$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.6 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 17c | 182.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 23c | 163.68$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.97 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 45c | 141.89$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.19 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 72c | 136$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.54 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 13c | 127.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.31 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 69c | 121.56$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.89 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5af3…1534backed Yes | 63c | 111.86$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.86 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 56c | 97.66$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.47 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 14c | 83.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 48c | 80.09$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.34 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 48c | 79.96$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.44 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40b8…7410backed Yes | 71c | 75.28$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1987…1d94backed Yes | 63c | 72.53$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.74 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 41c | 70$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.3 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 55c | 69.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked Yes | 50c | 61$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 32c | 60.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3609…3a0bbacked Yes | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 61c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 44c | 54.41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3daf…15d6backed Yes | 54c | 49.95$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.98 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 57c | 48.35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 37c | 47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e44…2c35backed Yes | 50c | 45.72$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 44c | 44.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.19 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 70c | 43.78$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 51c | 41.22$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.38 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 45c | 39.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3084backed Yes | 79c | 39.69$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 152 | 70.4%107 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 42c | 38.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 54c | 38.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 35c | 33.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 54c | 33.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 43c | 32.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6962…733ebacked Yes | 67c | 29.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 54c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed Yes | 73c | 27.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 42c | 25.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 48c | 23.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 58c | 22.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 52c | 20.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x500e…7c9abacked Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6e…b0e9backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -50%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 51c | 19.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed Yes | 64c | 19.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…9bb2backed Yes | 64c | 18.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 166 | 42.8%71 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 72c | 17.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on July 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 34°C on July 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.