Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on July 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x92629159ea81dd0703e45e48a6ca719f8cb4e35cd78392823d501acdbaed4f7d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,923
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,882
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,923 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 350$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.91 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 14c | 311.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.32 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 29c | 283.94$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.4 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 227.29$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.65 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 64c | 222.72$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.21 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x476e…00a9backed Yes | 44c | 211.33$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.59 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 37c | 203.87$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.32 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 67c | 199.88$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 63c | 196.75$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.76 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 35c | 193.83$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 57c | 183.68$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.32 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5484…84e8backed No | 73c | 170.6$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.91 | 111 | 69.4%77 W · 34 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 33c | 151.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.96 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 38c | 150.89$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.95 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 39c | 143.56$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 46c | 128.39$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 40c | 115.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 38c | 115.81$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 73c | 102$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.15 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 62c | 101.96$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.74 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 17c | 99.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 17c | 99.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2350…a351backed Yes | 35c | 85.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 84.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 17c | 83.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 56c | 79.93$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.34 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 60c | 79.88$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.57 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 37c | 76.17$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 72c | 68$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 74c | 65.49$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 72c | 60.54$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3609…3a0bbacked Yes | 38c | 60.17$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked Yes | 38c | 57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 63c | 54.32$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec3d…0a55backed Yes | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 144 | 34%49 W · 95 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 34c | 49.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 35c | 46.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked No | 65c | 46.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 35c | 45.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 28c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 73c | 44.89$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed Yes | 27c | 41.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 43c | 37.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 64c | 33.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 54c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 64c | 31.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 50c | 30.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 60c | 28.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…764fbacked Yes | 43c | 27.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +7.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…dd86backed No | 58c | 27.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 85 | 64.7%55 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3daf…15d6backed Yes | 38c | 27.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 62c | 27.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 57c | 27.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb80a…6163backed Yes | 45c | 26.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775c…28a9backed No | 61c | 24.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed No | 64c | 24.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9312…a285backed No | 79c | 21.34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 59c | 20.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…3f63backed No | 58c | 20.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 138 | 39.1%54 W · 84 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 59c | 20.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb9…9c56backed No | 56c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +9.3wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 73c | 18.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4612…d575backed No | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 94 | 70.2%66 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 69c | 14.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on July 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on July 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 34°C on July 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.