UFC · resolved market
Fight to Go the Distance?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6500841ab96429706748714aed7ec255b8eaf470a5f2dfb59b0ee4344b7c837a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,030
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,390
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,030 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6f24…64b5backed No | 71c | 800$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.21 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 50c | 525.61$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.22 | 170 | 50.6%86 W · 84 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17b8…d5d1backed No | 73c | 418.38$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.88 | 124 | 48.4%60 W · 64 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked No | 49c | 327.22$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.88 | 300 | 39.3%118 W · 182 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee0…d6a6backed Yes | 51c | 300$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -44%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Yes | 39c | 298.46$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.61 | 152 | 38.2%58 W · 94 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 50c | 282$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 356 | 48.6%173 W · 183 L | +16.8wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.83 | 223 | 48.4%108 W · 115 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Yes | 38c | 188$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.48 | 124 | 49.2%61 W · 63 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0a…643abacked No | 51c | 173$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.17 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Yes | 50c | 163.32$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.66 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c5…c8c1backed No | 61c | 148.22$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.81 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 15c | 89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 180 | 32.8%59 W · 121 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59e2…1c55backed Yes | 32c | 71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74b6…dc95backed No | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa144…fc6cbacked No | 50c | 68$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba3…8d5fbacked Yes | 39c | 54.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa1…a420backed Yes | 51c | 52.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 91 | 44%40 W · 51 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa96b…7d92backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03dc…99e1backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 90 | 60%54 W · 36 L | +11.5wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 49c | 41.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 381 | 53.5%204 W · 177 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecb0…2329backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6134…98b0backed No | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb3…da99backed No | 79c | 25.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ae…d117backed Yes | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2d…2be7backed No | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 70cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fight to Go the Distance?this page
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC Fight Night: Dennis Buzukja vs. Bogdan Grad (Featherweight, Prelims)Bogdan Grad won
- Will Bogdan Grad win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.