NBA · resolved market
Lakers vs. Grizzlies: O/U 236.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65066d09e993826077b6f1d6818027464a1d7e0e883418970ae17de1511d7c19
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,277
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,918
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,277 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2635…5408backed Under | 46c | 7,410$3,409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,001.57 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 54c | 6,326$3,397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,397.22 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 47c | 3,255$1,531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,724.01 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Under | 46c | 2,777$1,287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,489.65 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Over | 54c | 2,766$1,484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,484.48 | 157 | 45.2%71 W · 86 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe595…3ce7backed Over | 52c | 2,224$1,156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,156.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x114d…d8e3backed Under | 48c | 2,014$967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,047.28 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x403d…ba61backed Under | 48c | 1,790$859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$930.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…9678backed Over | 52c | 1,689$878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$878.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 53c | 1,370$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$726.1 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d4…8479backed Under | 48c | 1,126$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 56c | 1,101$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.8 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Over | 47c | 1,098$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.27 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb4…f880backed Over | 52c | 1,021$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.92 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x529a…d21cbacked Over | 52c | 984$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e0…900fbacked Under | 48c | 879$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Under | 47c | 493.08$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.33 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 37c | 378$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.86 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Under | 49c | 250$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.5 | 381 | 51.2%195 W · 186 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87b5…fb1fbacked Under | 48c | 210$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…ad63backed Over | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf848…9b7cbacked Under | 47c | 180$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd20c…e261backed Over | 54c | 167$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x553b…03ffbacked Under | 46c | 160$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Over | 52c | 150$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9896…5f41backed Over | 52c | 101$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0448…5a75backed Over | 52c | 77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e62…06f9backed Over | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 56c | 75$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,113 | 41.6%463 W · 650 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 44c | 75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 474 | 48.7%231 W · 243 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbee4…af0abacked Under | 46c | 65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca4d…eafdbacked Over | 52c | 61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7488…f855backed Under | 48c | 61$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 47c | 60.78$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.23 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8240…faa1backed Over | 54c | 58$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46bd…37e8backed Over | 52c | 55.19$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 168 | 37.5%63 W · 105 L | -20.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -25%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb36f…bfb9backed Over | 52c | 54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda20…948ebacked Under | 48c | 54$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef68…9cdfbacked Over | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f7…76cdbacked Under | 47c | 38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 48cpaid | +110.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 246 | 45.9%113 W · 133 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b82…b217backed Over | 54c | 27.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lakers vs. Grizzlies: O/U 236.5this page
- Lakers vs. GrizzliesLakers won
- Lakers vs. Grizzlies: 1H MoneylineGrizzlies won
- Lakers vs. Grizzlies: 1H O/U 122.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Grizzlies: O/U 233.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Grizzlies: O/U 234.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Grizzlies: O/U 235.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Grizzlies: O/U 237.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Grizzlies: O/U 238.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Grizzlies: O/U 239.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Grizzlies: O/U 240.5Under won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-2.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-4.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-5.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Lakers (-1.5)Lakers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.