TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Lakers (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Lakersof Lakers, Grizzlies
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,444
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,591

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,444 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4df3…788fbacked Grizzlies48c541.14$257 inLost-$257.26,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Lakers52c415$216 inWon+$199.282442.2%348 W · 476 L-3.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Grizzlies49c393.3$193 inLost-$192.749,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Lakers54c260$141 inWon+$119.328,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf37…8b49backed Grizzlies54c239$128 inLost-$128.239845.9%45 W · 53 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc390…715cbacked Lakers54c222.22$120 inWon+$102.228347%39 W · 44 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Grizzlies46c205.68$95 inLost-$94.612,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Lakers52c192.31$100 inWon+$92.3123553.6%126 W · 109 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Lakers51c188.99$97 inWon+$92.322,26543.4%982 W · 1,283 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Grizzlies40c180$72 inLost-$721,10941.8%464 W · 645 L-20.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc30…4387backed Grizzlies48c180$86 inLost-$86.420%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb15b…474ebacked Lakers53c179$95 inWon+$84.13250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69c4…09a3backed Lakers53c141.51$75 inWon+$66.5110250%51 W · 51 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd99…f375backed Lakers52c120$62 inWon+$57.638151.2%195 W · 186 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x900c…1d7abacked Grizzlies48c108.99$52 inLost-$52.3271052.1%370 W · 340 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd57…a167backed Lakers53c94.34$50 inWon+$44.341450%7 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39a2…a471backed Grizzlies50c80$40 inLost-$402050%10 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d45…9054backed Grizzlies47c77.34$37 inLost-$36.5630053.3%160 W · 140 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2c2…4de7backed Lakers44c72$32 inWon+$40.3249142.6%209 W · 282 L+12.1wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x27ec…ad73backed Lakers44c68.18$30 inWon+$38.1819451.5%100 W · 94 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked Grizzlies56c66.58$37 inLost-$37.2980148.3%387 W · 414 L-3.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2791…2791backed Lakers42c30$13 inWon+$17.43560%21 W · 14 L+4.1wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+24.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Grizzlies52c30$16 inLost-$15.6359743.6%260 W · 337 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc95c…cef3backed Grizzlies58c30$17 inLost-$17.411258.9%66 W · 46 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd52d…412dbacked Lakers51c25.8$13 inWon+$12.6453539.6%212 W · 323 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.