NBA · resolved market
Spread: Grizzlies (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93bb8c31d32d9cb180fd4826b7adf369f8d83b82a9f06413105a76f80b5f0f2f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lakersof Grizzlies, Lakers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,462
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,729
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,462 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Lakers | 65c | 5,487$3,562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,925 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Grizzlies | 48c | 3,670$1,761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,760.82 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9a…893bbacked Lakers | 51c | 2,480$1,265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,215.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca29…996fbacked Grizzlies | 49c | 2,311$1,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,132.39 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9896…5f41backed Lakers | 52c | 1,564$813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99da…0c31backed Lakers | 51c | 1,495$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$732.55 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 48cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Grizzlies | 44c | 1,065$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.36 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…9678backed Grizzlies | 48c | 1,012$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.76 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9844…5e6cbacked Lakers | 53c | 996.02$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.52 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Grizzlies | 27c | 927.31$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.37 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfd…3b0cbacked Grizzlies | 49c | 824$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.76 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85eb…53d4backed Grizzlies | 48c | 604$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaeb…21e9backed Lakers | 52c | 579$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.92 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x403d…ba61backed Grizzlies | 48c | 552$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.96 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Lakers | 54c | 538.13$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.48 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87b5…fb1fbacked Grizzlies | 48c | 466$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c3…1a3bbacked Grizzlies | 49c | 460$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb54…ccf3backed Lakers | 52c | 400$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd466…0b4fbacked Grizzlies | 42c | 357.14$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +27%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe595…3ce7backed Lakers | 52c | 319$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Grizzlies | 48c | 312$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.76 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bff…26c7backed Lakers | 52c | 290$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…c79dbacked Grizzlies | 48c | 250$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Lakers | 46c | 249$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.46 | 381 | 51.2%195 W · 186 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa64b…3142backed Grizzlies | 49c | 211$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.39 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x784f…5caabacked Grizzlies | 48c | 210$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b3…f97cbacked Lakers | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe792…4d26backed Grizzlies | 48c | 190$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x114d…d8e3backed Lakers | 52c | 147$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.56 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc7…b89bbacked Lakers | 60c | 131.7$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.68 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked Lakers | 61c | 131.68$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.19 | 434 | 53.2%231 W · 203 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ca…2c36backed Lakers | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d6…36cbbacked Grizzlies | 49c | 118.47$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.05 | 245 | 33.9%83 W · 162 L | -19.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe45d…f77ebacked Grizzlies | 49c | 110.04$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.92 | 253 | 36.8%93 W · 160 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Lakers | 54c | 108$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.68 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02f0…1567backed Grizzlies | 49c | 102$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae2…b997backed Lakers | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc7…fe1cbacked Lakers | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93a0…492dbacked Lakers | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf2d…1100backed Lakers | 53c | 98.26$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.18 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcab4…c91bbacked Grizzlies | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f10…854fbacked Grizzlies | 48c | 90$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ddd…19c2backed Lakers | 52c | 75$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x412c…43b4backed Lakers | 52c | 67.31$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…d90bbacked Grizzlies | 49c | 67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.83 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a69…a466backed Grizzlies | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -4.4wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -46%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc538…484abacked Lakers | 62c | 56.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Grizzlies | 48c | 54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x064e…88dbbacked Grizzlies | 47c | 53.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x668f…7c60backed Lakers | 53c | 53.01$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +71%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaef7…d43abacked Lakers | 51c | 53$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0b…69e3backed Grizzlies | 49c | 52.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -49%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dff…bc36backed Grizzlies | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…0878backed Lakers | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b6…1528backed Lakers | 51c | 49.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.45 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6aca…25afbacked Grizzlies | 49c | 49.89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Lakers | 49c | 45.21$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.12 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…6e0abacked Lakers | 54c | 44.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 234 | 45.7%107 W · 127 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x801e…c4a1backed Grizzlies | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfde…71d3backed Grizzlies | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Lakers | 56c | 38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 597 | 43.6%260 W · 337 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33c4…e894backed Grizzlies | 48c | 37.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…30acbacked Grizzlies | 48c | 37.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…a766backed Grizzlies | 42c | 32.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44c4…b0dcbacked Grizzlies | 48c | 32.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0f…7037backed Grizzlies | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdba…3dedbacked Lakers | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Grizzlies | 43c | 28.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab24…9804backed Grizzlies | 42c | 27.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63d3…362bbacked Grizzlies | 42c | 26.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37ff…5311backed Grizzlies | 42c | 24.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9847…1fe9backed Grizzlies | 48c | 21.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…3183backed Lakers | 57c | 19.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Grizzlies (-2.5)this page
- Lakers vs. GrizzliesLakers won
- Lakers vs. Grizzlies: 1H MoneylineGrizzlies won
- Lakers vs. Grizzlies: 1H O/U 122.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Grizzlies: O/U 233.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Grizzlies: O/U 234.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Grizzlies: O/U 235.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Grizzlies: O/U 236.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Grizzlies: O/U 237.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Grizzlies: O/U 238.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Grizzlies: O/U 239.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Grizzlies: O/U 240.5Under won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-4.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-5.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Lakers (-1.5)Lakers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.