NBA · resolved market
Lakers vs. Grizzlies: O/U 240.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x768fddfd27df3393db3602f124b1fd5aa258af046731051b15e46d5a2c5c5cfe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $108,997
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $109,038
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $108,997 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd43c…04e8backed Over | 47c | 105,443$49,972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49,971.67 | 115 | 35.7%41 W · 74 L | -12.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 53c | 36,330$19,319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,010.49 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Under | 52c | 23,469$12,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,188.24 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Under | 52c | 23,134$12,139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,995.44 | 524 | 60.1%315 W · 209 L | +35.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 52c | 9,940$5,169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,771.2 | 474 | 48.7%231 W · 243 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 52c | 9,000$4,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,320 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86a3…33dbbacked Under | 59c | 1,700$1,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Under | 53c | 1,395$739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.65 | 477 | 51.8%247 W · 230 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a7…d3abbacked Under | 51c | 999.89$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.95 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Over | 49c | 965.55$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.42 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 52c | 510$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.08 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6465…8a34backed Under | 50c | 420.1$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.05 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 46c | 95$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.7 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc47e…8ae4backed Under | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +5.1wins | +0.39per pick | 45cpaid | +91%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x62b0…abdabacked Over | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Under | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 98 | 45.9%45 W · 53 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…1e51backed Under | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | -9.0wins | -0.13per pick | 62cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Under | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 635 | 55.6%353 W · 282 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c3…f46ebacked Under | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 381 | 51.2%195 W · 186 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lakers vs. Grizzlies: O/U 240.5this page
- Lakers vs. GrizzliesLakers won
- Lakers vs. Grizzlies: 1H MoneylineGrizzlies won
- Lakers vs. Grizzlies: 1H O/U 122.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Grizzlies: O/U 233.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Grizzlies: O/U 234.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Grizzlies: O/U 235.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Grizzlies: O/U 236.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Grizzlies: O/U 237.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Grizzlies: O/U 238.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Grizzlies: O/U 239.5Under won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-2.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-4.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-5.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Lakers (-1.5)Lakers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.