TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

Michael Olise: 3+ shots

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,932
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,934

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,932 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes32c6,666$2,133 inLost-$2,133.1213122.1%29 W · 102 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-28.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf17a…fa3abacked No68c5,882$4,000 inWon+$1,882.3516260.5%98 W · 64 L+22.3wins+0.14per pick47cpaid+29%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xca7c…e994backed No68c1,615$1,098 inWon+$516.6437350.1%187 W · 186 L+45.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+28%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x4d02…bfecbacked Yes33c496.42$162 inLost-$161.781,47544.9%663 W · 812 L-4.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Yes32c300$96 inLost-$962,80555.1%1,546 W · 1,259 L+70.4wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x329d…5a92backed No66c124.65$82 inWon+$42.652,57646.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L+35.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xec64…c9ccbacked Yes32c85.47$27 inLost-$27.354450%22 W · 22 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b0e…e8fabacked Yes33c69.12$23 inLost-$23.112552%13 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaef7…6390backed No64c67.19$43 inWon+$24.192100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x39c6…0ac1backed No64c24.77$16 inWon+$8.929563.2%60 W · 35 L+5.9wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+12.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc155…e36bbacked No70c22.5$16 inWon+$6.6578559.7%469 W · 316 L+25.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…ba2cbacked No70c21$15 inWon+$6.2745472.9%331 W · 123 L+18.8wins+0.04per pick69cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 99. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.