MLB · resolved market
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6573cbed1eaf69346960e34c9a07242281a6a740c6ae785519d8b78dcddb0df9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,197
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,274
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,197 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 29c | 3,175$905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,269.31 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafee…881ebacked Under | 72c | 3,105$2,236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,235.72 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 65c | 2,558$1,672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,672.11 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 32c | 2,041$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,387.98 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 41c | 379$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.3 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 36c | 351.84$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.75 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c38…1bfabacked Under | 62c | 327.42$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 59c | 223.62$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.06 | 1,176 | 43.8%515 W · 661 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05b2…953bbacked Under | 49c | 171$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.1 | 109 | 41.3%45 W · 64 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 41c | 161.61$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.7 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 44c | 125.02$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.01 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…7f3bbacked Over | 43c | 118.6$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.6 | 163 | 53.4%87 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Under | 67c | 117$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.3 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca2…1798backed Under | 56c | 107.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 51c | 105$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.45 | 1,855 | 44%817 W · 1,038 L | -31.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Over | 41c | 102.52$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.68 | 671 | 52.5%352 W · 319 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 64c | 101.75$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.12 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Over | 43c | 99.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.49 | 390 | 49%191 W · 199 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…6232backed Under | 64c | 98.26$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.98 | 182 | 44.5%81 W · 101 L | -14.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb90…1917backed Under | 50c | 79.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.59 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 42c | 70$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.62 | 895 | 48.3%432 W · 463 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 52c | 65.46$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.42 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 56c | 39.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…153bbacked Over | 41c | 38.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed5d…d67fbacked Over | 32c | 37.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 58c | 29.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 411 | 41.4%170 W · 241 L | -21.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed Over | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf949…f512backed Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 58c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 1,884 | 53%998 W · 886 L | +16.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay RaysBaltimore Orioles won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 13.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 14.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-7.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay RaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.