MLB · resolved market
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc259f5ac82b88a28db756c03ba3ab2e96901434fd8b13a2ee62150c40b2f5a84
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,643
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,961
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,643 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 55c | 2,225$1,216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,216.34 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 61c | 1,627$1,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$626.48 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 42c | 1,080$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$626.32 | 475 | 45.9%218 W · 257 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Under | 39c | 970$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.3 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 57c | 958.22$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.61 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 61c | 845.46$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.73 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 60c | 800$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa71d…9854backed Under | 40c | 716.66$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.66 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 42c | 696$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.68 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 60c | 580.53$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.21 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Under | 36c | 500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 595 | 49.7%296 W · 299 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 60c | 445.67$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.2 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 48c | 315.53$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.19 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 51c | 279$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.29 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebf3…50a8backed Under | 40c | 238.09$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.24 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -5.7wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -29%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Over | 42c | 205.85$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.9 | 473 | 58.4%276 W · 197 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3992…349cbacked Under | 38c | 197.37$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 167 | 44.9%75 W · 92 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47b…c6b1backed Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | -11.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Under | 37c | 192.27$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.14 | 220 | 50.5%111 W · 109 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…7f3bbacked Over | 63c | 184.13$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.13 | 151 | 53%80 W · 71 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Under | 38c | 168.48$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.33 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x734e…edbdbacked Over | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa371…eaa5backed Under | 41c | 146.34$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Over | 43c | 139.16$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.32 | 473 | 46.5%220 W · 253 L | +25.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Under | 40c | 133.95$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.95 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd577…c012backed Under | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 36c | 123.64$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.97 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 61c | 119.99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.79 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7218…ea41backed Under | 40c | 119.04$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.62 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -5.1wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf04b…049abacked Under | 40c | 119.04$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.62 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -6.4wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7a41…f527backed Under | 40c | 119.04$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.62 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -5.2wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 52c | 104.02$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.8 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 66c | 102$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Over | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.61 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…6232backed Under | 48c | 98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.46 | 182 | 44.5%81 W · 101 L | -14.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x05b2…953bbacked Under | 36c | 97$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.92 | 109 | 41.3%45 W · 64 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 40c | 90.09$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.03 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 63c | 87.31$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x282b…cc76backed Under | 40c | 83.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 126 | 46.8%59 W · 67 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Over | 42c | 69.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.37 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 40c | 62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 787 | 54.6%430 W · 357 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Over | 61c | 61.89$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.38 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 56c | 56.69$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…153bbacked Over | 61c | 52.49$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.49 | 115 | 50.4%58 W · 57 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fd…9994backed Under | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -5.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc915…2b84backed Under | 40c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -4.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x232f…8002backed Under | 42c | 46.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -5.4wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 59c | 42.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…55abbacked Under | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.27per pick | 45cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x256a…8fb4backed Under | 40c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -4.5wins | -0.21per pick | 45cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Over | 42c | 34.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 406 | 58.4%237 W · 169 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Over | 42c | 34.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…caa6backed Over | 56c | 32.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Over | 42c | 27.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 380 | 53.2%202 W · 178 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6e…a59cbacked Under | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay RaysBaltimore Orioles won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 13.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 14.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-7.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay RaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.