NFL · resolved market
Will Davante Adams be traded before the deadline?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6575cae21cb68bf8b2fff31569d3f79b00980b2c07a9916423e10688478a87b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,627
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,770
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,627 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 15c | 5,881$908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$907.55 | 247 | 38.1%94 W · 153 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Yes | 80c | 2,966$2,372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.67 | 89 | 51.7%46 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed No | 20c | 2,620$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.05 | 202 | 46%93 W · 109 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83b2…0c25backed Yes | 79c | 2,535$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49d3…ea4ebacked No | 14c | 2,497$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.16 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0815…d0ddbacked No | 15c | 1,745$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed No | 13c | 1,055$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf714…0d3cbacked No | 17c | 1,044$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…a286backed No | 16c | 743.25$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.34 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -20%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ef…2541backed No | 22c | 590.7$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…580fbacked No | 29c | 474.67$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.84 | 104 | 34.6%36 W · 68 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed No | 22c | 250.12$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.41 | 164 | 39.6%65 W · 99 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…787bbacked No | 14c | 245.64$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.39 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 12c | 216.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 77 | 18.2%14 W · 63 L | -11.0wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed No | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd7…dd7dbacked No | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda0c…0551backed No | 11c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x577f…73e9backed No | 14c | 200$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe18c…f741backed No | 20c | 200$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…d185backed No | 14c | 200$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb147…6091backed No | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06af…196fbacked No | 14c | 200$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e7…1022backed Yes | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34b9…dae3backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52ff…2c6ebacked No | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe07…20b8backed No | 20c | 200$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f99…0cd1backed No | 20c | 200$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb979…a072backed No | 14c | 200$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x323a…18b6backed No | 14c | 200$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf604…4917backed No | 14c | 200$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 12c | 181.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 314 | 39.8%125 W · 189 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa390…4abdbacked Yes | 79c | 150$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…7cd0backed No | 22c | 150$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa6…db6abacked No | 19c | 106.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc280…de71backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa8…f84abacked No | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8109…aedabacked No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 415 | 40.2%167 W · 248 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed No | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e2…25f7backed No | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +4.5wins | +0.21per pick | 31cpaid | +294.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x312b…6099backed No | 19c | 60.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4294…ee29backed Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5680…aecabacked No | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Yes | 78c | 45.16$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcda1…d9adbacked Yes | 73c | 34.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaac7…afbebacked Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +161.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ae…d900backed Yes | 74c | 13.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +160%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.