Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6579145f63103f56f67dd9eb45959a7cb7b512afffea65f384d1b6734e54dd1e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,692
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,357
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,692 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 2c | 5,311$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.5 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed No | 69c | 1,093$759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.39 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 14c | 956.66$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.07 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 4c | 819.32$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 2c | 725.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 10c | 669.64$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.63 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 10c | 568.66$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.32 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 2c | 534.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 7c | 515.38$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x536e…06d7backed Yes | 18c | 414.47$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.65 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 26cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb284…7518backed Yes | 6c | 304.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes | 10c | 276.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfccb…c75bbacked Yes | 4c | 252.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 4c | 237.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e1…96c8backed Yes | 14c | 226.92$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d2…9145backed Yes | 12c | 212.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 85 | 9.4%8 W · 77 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 212.11$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…3830backed Yes | 29c | 185.74$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.54 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 47cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 66c | 181.51$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.54 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf05…3d5bbacked Yes | 8c | 177.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 54c | 157.1$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.89 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 12c | 128.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b9…1e0ebacked Yes | 11c | 124.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4343…8deabacked Yes | 40c | 123.37$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.92 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf65e…7cacbacked Yes | 9c | 122.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbda0…8992backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed No | 65c | 107.66$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.92 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked Yes | 10c | 105.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 17c | 96.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda33…daccbacked Yes | 15c | 74.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 74c | 72.46$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c8…c0fabacked No | 72c | 62.2$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 73c | 60.64$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.