Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e24afccd9b2b576baef4d617903aa06ddcf9ada88554243feb3cf710ab71604
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,407
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,895
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,407 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 139 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbe3b…fbddbacked No | 0c | 7,140$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 40c | 1,099$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$658.95 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 18c | 1,036$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$853.41 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 65c | 927.72$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.6 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 75c | 745.24$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.63 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda33…daccbacked Yes | 15c | 602.39$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.03 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe723…831cbacked No | 48c | 599.98$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x536e…06d7backed Yes | 31c | 541.41$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.41 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 26cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 11c | 540.8$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.15 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 29c | 525.58$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.91 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe8…6e25backed No | 78c | 504.04$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.93 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 75c | 493.92$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.83 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 72c | 483.4$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.23 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 33c | 482.49$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.59 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 28c | 463.14$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.38 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 79c | 460.86$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.64 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 42c | 459.81$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.86 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 28c | 455.54$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.02 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 17c | 454.04$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.85 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 41c | 412.11$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.41 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b9…1e0ebacked Yes | 64c | 407.34$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.22 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 393$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.17 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 14c | 371.85$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.19 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 61c | 361.65$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.22 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf255…a6e8backed No | 61c | 351.01$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.03 | 82 | 69.5%57 W · 25 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…3830backed Yes | 45c | 331.76$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.76 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 47cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 26c | 331.38$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.91 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 18c | 320.06$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.23 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 36c | 302$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.42 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 16c | 277.78$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.78 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 17c | 277.77$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.34 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 267.42$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.95 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 71c | 263.33$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.77 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 41c | 262.06$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.86 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 26c | 256.93$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.81 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 76c | 249.99$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.95 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 53c | 237.76$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.9 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 21c | 231.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.06 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 48c | 208.98$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.31 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe27c…5da2backed Yes | 63c | 208.14$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.14 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 79c | 206$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.55 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29e9…8be2backed Yes | 23c | 199.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 79c | 196.22$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.6 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 23c | 179$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf75f…b458backed Yes | 23c | 165.55$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.92 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +6.1wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x53c5…7f34backed Yes | 25c | 163.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.18 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 39c | 159.92$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.12 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 76c | 157.72$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.35 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf05…3d5bbacked Yes | 72c | 152.58$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.58 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 61c | 152.3$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.84 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed Yes | 68c | 151.23$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.83 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +5.9wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4343…8deabacked Yes | 64c | 149.93$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.16 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e9…02babacked Yes | 33c | 139.1$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.3 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 24c | 138.6$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.6 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 130$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.81 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…1936backed Yes | 75c | 127.91$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.51 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked No | 10c | 126.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 73c | 120.11$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.23 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 24c | 117.65$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.25 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x357a…88dfbacked Yes | 26c | 116.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.66 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e1…96c8backed Yes | 22c | 114.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.84 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 61c | 114.66$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.84 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ee…3368backed Yes | 33c | 114.48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.25 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 9c | 112.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 20c | 107.26$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.55 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 19c | 106.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbda0…8992backed Yes | 59c | 101.82$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.82 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd936…17d6backed Yes | 50c | 100.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.18 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.66 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09d9…1b48backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed Yes | 23c | 99.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.99 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 18c | 99.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.91 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed Yes | 25c | 97.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.53 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb911…d6d0backed Yes | 68c | 94.38$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.98 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 74c | 94.12$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.28 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea4…90edbacked Yes | 32c | 93.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.89 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +7.7wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 20c | 89.76$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.43 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28d0…f0b2backed Yes | 20c | 87.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.01 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 29c | 84.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.58 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed Yes | 24c | 83.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.76 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 79c | 82.68$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.39 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 24c | 81.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.69 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 16c | 80$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.9 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…08ecbacked Yes | 40c | 76.84$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.74 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 22c | 76.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 23c | 70$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.6 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 25c | 70$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.6 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 16c | 70$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 24c | 70$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 173 | 24.3%42 W · 131 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 19c | 65.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.49 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 75c | 65.12$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.79 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd31d…f8bfbacked Yes | 17c | 64.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.94 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 21c | 64.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…d13cbacked Yes | 34c | 63.82$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.12 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 77c | 63.35$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 74c | 60.77$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.89 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.