Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a2233c81cf9bb285a5b3876a018f75654a25ce7d78e1a54d263b0d875cb8baa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,742
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,020
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,742 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 171 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 64c | 4,785$3,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,744.3 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda33…daccbacked Yes | 35c | 3,000$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 22c | 2,249$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.64 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 29c | 1,723$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.64 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 28c | 1,406$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.38 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 32c | 1,302$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.26 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 53c | 1,153$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.35 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 11c | 921.09$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.82 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f5…38d7backed Yes | 37c | 915.76$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.45 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 35c | 870.07$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.39 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 3c | 800$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 46c | 774.45$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.58 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb31…3952backed Yes | 53c | 633.9$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.21 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 9c | 617.37$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.3 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 63c | 582$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.47 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 28c | 572$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.34 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09d9…1b48backed Yes | 40c | 499.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 80c | 493.57$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.97 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 10c | 493.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 51c | 483.4$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.02 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 58c | 458.16$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.28 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 11c | 440.38$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.74 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 57c | 421$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.63 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 10c | 411.88$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.18 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 50c | 408.06$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.22 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 71c | 390.1$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.2 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 17c | 389.17$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.04 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb911…d6d0backed Yes | 49c | 348.97$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.01 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 47c | 345.29$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.96 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 13c | 333.13$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.79 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 56c | 325.44$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.58 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 77c | 305$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.26 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 18c | 302.28$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.49 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 58c | 300$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 57c | 300$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e1…96c8backed Yes | 50c | 296.87$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.88 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…f0c8backed Yes | 53c | 237.87$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.07 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 27c | 223.04$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.68 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 48c | 212.57$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.3 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 68c | 200.28$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.09 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcec6…7566backed No | 51c | 199.99$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.5 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -5.1wins | -0.19per pick | 54cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…f296backed Yes | 32c | 196.66$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.06 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 61c | 195.49$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.95 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 46c | 185.13$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.07 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…8e3cbacked No | 79c | 183.17$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.77 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 47c | 179.99$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.63 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 54c | 169$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.08 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 50c | 165$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8189…a808backed Yes | 15c | 164.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 55c | 157.72$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.51 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 46c | 157$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.97 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a49…2b86backed Yes | 29c | 155.27$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 74c | 152.84$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.08 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 18c | 149.73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 58c | 136.2$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.7 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 45c | 131.22$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 44c | 129.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.14 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 69c | 126.64$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.92 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 47c | 119.77$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.34 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 42c | 118.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.58 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 12c | 114.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 52c | 113.64$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.11 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb66e…7fe2backed Yes | 49c | 113.55$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.64 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 60c | 110.24$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.9 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 11c | 106.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c28…a73bbacked Yes | 10c | 105$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 53c | 104.68$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89cc…9e01backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6104…f040backed Yes | 13c | 99.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 18c | 99.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 56c | 98.55$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.49 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 92.34$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.13 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 15c | 90.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed Yes | 24c | 90$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 15c | 88.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 22c | 87.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 28c | 86.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b9…1e0ebacked Yes | 53c | 85$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.05 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 43c | 83.94$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.84 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…1936backed Yes | 18c | 82.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 51c | 82.69$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.84 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb843…eac8backed Yes | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 16c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e1…e24abacked Yes | 26c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 14c | 77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 25c | 74.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x576d…adddbacked Yes | 52c | 72.23$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.56 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb4…da2cbacked No | 52c | 70$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 44c | 70$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 48c | 65.12$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.89 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558e…ec99backed No | 56c | 63.95$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.15 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…d13cbacked Yes | 41c | 62.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe55…516ebacked Yes | 21c | 61.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94ae…d801backed No | 55c | 60.87$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 60c | 60.77$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.17 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe72b…3c9cbacked No | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 46c | 59.52$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.09 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x357a…88dfbacked No | 77c | 59.31$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.