Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a7f17901e213e702b167df2f4fc684ebf114835fd7dbe1a652b4c16adf63e71
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,916
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,970
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,916 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xda33…daccbacked Yes | 20c | 3,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f5…38d7backed Yes | 23c | 1,502$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 2c | 1,369$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb31…3952backed Yes | 28c | 1,054$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.89 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 7c | 1,029$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.34 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 2c | 1,013$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 1c | 999.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 19c | 997.7$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.33 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 3c | 755.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 74c | 468.69$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.78 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 18c | 467.68$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.42 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 3c | 399.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 13c | 394.7$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.55 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 388.22$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.64 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 382.72$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.07 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 337$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.55 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 18c | 300$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.37 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 16c | 256$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 78c | 254.7$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.45 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 26c | 237.65$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.94 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 75c | 194.01$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.58 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7937…e074backed No | 80c | 190.53$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.11 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 77c | 180.92$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.69 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 14c | 166.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7180…1cefbacked Yes | 22c | 151.72$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.28 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 140.24$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 62c | 139.73$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.1 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…e169backed Yes | 19c | 137.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 22c | 121.77$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.49 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 19c | 121.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 63c | 119.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.39 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x529d…b897backed No | 75c | 108.86$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.21 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 93.82$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 77c | 84$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f55…04fbbacked No | 72c | 82.98$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.98 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 78c | 82.68$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 76c | 79$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 66c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked No | 75c | 73$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 191 | 71.7%137 W · 54 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f22…e113backed No | 80c | 70.85$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 67cpaid | -45%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 18c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb4…da2cbacked No | 79c | 70$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 26c | 66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 75c | 65.09$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 78c | 60.77$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 26c | 58.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 22c | 57.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 73c | 57.7$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 75c | 57.34$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 23c | 56.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c8…c0fabacked No | 79c | 55.35$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda0…8992backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…d13cbacked Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…d63cbacked No | 76c | 53.88$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -5.5wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 77c | 53$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 24c | 52.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 63c | 45.95$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 64c | 41.77$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ed…156fbacked No | 77c | 35.23$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…0484backed No | 76c | 33.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 161 | 29.2%47 W · 114 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8a…74b1backed No | 78c | 31.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f82…04a1backed No | 79c | 28.95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 75cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5579…2db1backed No | 76c | 28.03$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 138 | 52.9%73 W · 65 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 66c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 78c | 25.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 222 | 65.8%146 W · 76 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…6f6ebacked No | 73c | 23.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 141 | 61.7%87 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6906…f45ebacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 60cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd31d…f8bfbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f7…c14bbacked No | 76c | 17.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 109 | 73.4%80 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 73c | 17.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 72c | 16.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.