TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Mls · resolved market

Chicago Fire FC vs. Charlotte FC: O/U 5.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$78,630
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$78,641

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,630 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Mls
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x99f0…9495backed Over11c16,381$1,875 inLost-$1,874.8220043%86 W · 114 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+14.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over11c12,440$1,413 inLost-$1,413.323,01243.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L-29.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over11c9,545$1,050 inLost-$1,049.9555750.1%279 W · 278 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Over11c9,545$1,050 inLost-$1,049.9568550.5%346 W · 339 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over12c9,374$1,125 inLost-$1,124.8991553%485 W · 430 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over12c4,000$460 inLost-$4601,27048%610 W · 660 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Over11c3,802$406 inLost-$405.9698945.4%449 W · 540 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over12c2,768$331 inLost-$330.931,88036.6%688 W · 1,192 L-7.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed Over11c1,600$176 inLost-$1765437%20 W · 34 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over8c1,598$128 inLost-$127.8799340.1%398 W · 595 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Over11c1,000$110 inLost-$11053046.4%246 W · 284 L-15.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84d4…77a9backed Over12c733.32$88 inLost-$8819642.9%84 W · 112 L-9.0wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x882c…8148backed Over13c555$72 inLost-$72.156124.6%15 W · 46 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-21.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over4c345.12$15 inLost-$15.421,26245.2%571 W · 691 L-28.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-21.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4bf…60f8backed Over12c322.16$39 inLost-$38.6612850%64 W · 64 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d67…3667backed Over12c316.5$38 inLost-$37.987147.9%34 W · 37 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5659…7a6bbacked Over11c275.96$32 inLost-$31.7452923.8%126 W · 403 L-25.8wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe84f…b777backed Over12c219.46$26 inLost-$26.3412356.9%70 W · 53 L+4.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x50e5…e39fbacked Over12c205$24 inLost-$23.718456.5%104 W · 80 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc4f…9804backed Over12c162.41$19 inLost-$18.8735149.6%174 W · 177 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42c7…c415backed Over12c143.07$17 inLost-$17.173256.3%18 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd8fa…581fbacked Over12c109.17$13 inLost-$13.11968.4%13 W · 6 L+3.9wins+0.21per pick48cpaid+43.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x13f7…85d5backed Over12c100$12 inLost-$1210612.3%13 W · 93 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0977…53ccbacked Over12c100$12 inLost-$123542.9%15 W · 20 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x329d…5a92backed Over13c79.99$10 inLost-$10.45525.5%14 W · 41 L-9.9wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-44.6%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.