Mls · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Fire FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb217cdb18de9bf0fafc2bfd3693e2ffa9781bf7fc4d5a1d23405d26b833cd8b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Charlotte FCof Chicago Fire FC, Charlotte FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,548
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,690
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,548 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4488…e319backed Charlotte FC | 60c | 6,798$4,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,722.23 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Fire FC | 40c | 3,902$1,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,559.61 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04d5…66d8backed Chicago Fire FC | 40c | 3,811$1,524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,524.23 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Charlotte FC | 60c | 1,250$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Charlotte FC | 60c | 1,250$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Charlotte FC | 60c | 1,137$682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.92 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1f…6a93backed Chicago Fire FC | 40c | 1,068$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Chicago Fire FC | 40c | 613.11$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.11 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -5.8wins | -0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa8eb…0acbbacked Charlotte FC | 72c | 279.02$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.85 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Charlotte FC | 67c | 214.92$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.25 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Chicago Fire FC | 40c | 205.92$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.97 | 196 | 42.9%84 W · 112 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Chicago Fire FC | 41c | 202.13$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.97 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Chicago Fire FC | 29c | 201.83$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.74 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Chicago Fire FC | 41c | 140.83$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.14 | 123 | 56.9%70 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Chicago Fire FC | 40c | 132.24$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.94 | 128 | 50%64 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Chicago Fire FC | 40c | 121.48$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.59 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Charlotte FC | 61c | 120.79$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.11 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x151b…a686backed Chicago Fire FC | 30c | 110.91$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Chicago Fire FC | 40c | 99.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.73 | 394 | 35.8%141 W · 253 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Chicago Fire FC | 14c | 98.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Chicago Fire FC | 40c | 92$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 184 | 56.5%104 W · 80 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Chicago Fire FC | 40c | 65.85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 734 | 38.1%280 W · 454 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Charlotte FC | 60c | 61.25$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Chicago Fire FC | 24c | 59.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 273 | 44.3%121 W · 152 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Charlotte FC | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 220 | 42.7%94 W · 126 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce48…76b8backed Chicago Fire FC | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82fb…0b6ebacked Charlotte FC | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03c3…3a1dbacked Chicago Fire FC | 40c | 47.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked Chicago Fire FC | 40c | 36.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Chicago Fire FC | 39c | 34.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Charlotte FC | 72c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42c7…c415backed Chicago Fire FC | 40c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Chicago Fire FC | 40c | 32.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fa…581fbacked Chicago Fire FC | 40c | 32.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.21per pick | 48cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5af6…759bbacked Chicago Fire FC | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed Charlotte FC | 59c | 21.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 169 | 60.9%103 W · 66 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fd…10ccbacked Charlotte FC | 63c | 19.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 26 | 76.9%20 W · 6 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…10aabacked Charlotte FC | 61c | 16.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb9…c170backed Charlotte FC | 80c | 12.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 21 | 85.7%18 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 80cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Fire FC (-1.5)this page
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Charlotte FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Charlotte FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Charlotte FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Charlotte FC: Charlotte FC O/U 0.5Over won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Charlotte FC: Charlotte FC O/U 1.5Under won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Charlotte FC: Charlotte FC O/U 2.5Under won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Charlotte FC: Chicago Fire FC O/U 0.5Over won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Charlotte FC: Chicago Fire FC O/U 1.5Over won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Charlotte FC: Chicago Fire FC O/U 2.5Under won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Charlotte FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Charlotte FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Charlotte FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Charlotte FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Charlotte FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Charlotte FC: O/U 5.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.