TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Mls · resolved market

Chicago Fire FC vs. Charlotte FC: O/U 4.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,042
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,574

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,042 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Mls
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Over17c2,442$412 inLost-$411.9899340.1%398 W · 595 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a2f…647abacked Over17c1,410$240 inLost-$239.717137.4%64 W · 107 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3740…a935backed Under80c1,407$1,126 inWon+$281.424868.8%33 W · 15 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x882c…8148backed Over26c554.95$144 inLost-$144.296124.6%15 W · 46 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-21.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under74c486.23$359 inWon+$126.793,01243.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L-29.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over18c384.75$68 inLost-$67.731,26245.2%571 W · 691 L-28.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-21.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x014c…38ccbacked Over28c342$95 inLost-$958853.4%47 W · 41 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19d8…965abacked Over6c298.22$16 inLost-$16.498624.4%21 W · 65 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under72c266$192 inWon+$74.4891553%485 W · 430 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Over35c90$32 inLost-$31.5544350.6%224 W · 219 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddb3…5fe5backed Under64c60$38 inWon+$21.62152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x329d…5a92backed Over26c58.95$15 inLost-$15.145525.5%14 W · 41 L-9.9wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-44.6%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x81e4…f356backed Under73c53.88$39 inWon+$14.551369.2%9 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick62cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under73c53.61$39 inWon+$14.291,30151.2%666 W · 635 L-19.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Under57c44$25 inWon+$18.9248344.9%217 W · 266 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-16.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47c9…2038backed Over43c44$19 inLost-$18.929253.3%49 W · 43 L+7.6wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+22.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Under75c25.39$19 inWon+$6.3573438.1%280 W · 454 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8041…fc83backed Under75c16$12 inWon+$42462.5%15 W · 9 L+3.3wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+31.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb4bf…60f8backed Under74c14$10 inWon+$3.6412850%64 W · 64 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fb9…c170backed Under80c12.52$10 inWon+$2.52185.7%18 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick80cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.