MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65a78d7351859c3af9ca237ad98002a1a811800fb9d5ff402ca12c1919a96af1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cleveland Guardiansof Chicago White Sox, Cleveland Guardians
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,091
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,071
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,091 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 71c | 3,267$2,316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$950.31 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Chicago White Sox | 29c | 2,553$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.67 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago White Sox | 30c | 890.29$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.47 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Chicago White Sox | 28c | 638.85$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.88 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Cleveland Guardians | 68c | 512.22$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.08 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Cleveland Guardians | 70c | 407.08$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.86 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Chicago White Sox | 28c | 273.32$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.59 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Cleveland Guardians | 71c | 264.14$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.75 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Cleveland Guardians | 73c | 179.61$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Chicago White Sox | 35c | 173.43$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.19 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Cleveland Guardians | 69c | 138.26$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Chicago White Sox | 31c | 129.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 732 | 43.4%318 W · 414 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Chicago White Sox | 29c | 82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cleveland Guardians | 74c | 81.48$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ffcbacked Chicago White Sox | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Cleveland Guardians | 70c | 76.47$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Chicago White Sox | 23c | 58.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Chicago White Sox | 30c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8db0…5b69backed Chicago White Sox | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -5.7wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -38%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Cleveland Guardians | 68c | 51.58$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Chicago White Sox | 28c | 50.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Chicago White Sox | 24c | 49.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Chicago White Sox | 31c | 44.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Cleveland Guardians | 74c | 41.62$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Cleveland Guardians | 72c | 30.27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…4c78backed Cleveland Guardians | 71c | 23.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Cleveland Guardians | 74c | 16.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 4.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 5.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-4.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White SoxNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.