MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5fa620795bc1cb38c1bc9bb735d32874834578ed4b354d4be246fbc434acdde
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago White Soxof Cleveland Guardians, Chicago White Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,799
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,729
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,799 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 47c | 5,443$2,537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,536.56 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Chicago White Sox | 53c | 4,142$2,198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,944.48 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Chicago White Sox | 55c | 3,580$1,978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,601.61 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cleveland Guardians | 43c | 1,417$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.68 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Chicago White Sox | 58c | 396.55$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.55 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 329.09$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.8 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Chicago White Sox | 54c | 289.13$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Cleveland Guardians | 25c | 281.07$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.67 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Cleveland Guardians | 18c | 274$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.32 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a0…c52bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 30c | 270.28$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 231 | 45.5%105 W · 126 L | -8.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Cleveland Guardians | 36c | 238.52$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.1 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Cleveland Guardians | 13c | 208$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 36c | 198.26$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.37 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…d396backed Chicago White Sox | 63c | 119.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 506 | 47%238 W · 268 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Chicago White Sox | 63c | 110.27$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.27 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Cleveland Guardians | 38c | 102.41$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.92 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6b…e0f3backed Chicago White Sox | 64c | 98.9$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.6 | 172 | 53.5%92 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Cleveland Guardians | 46c | 89.13$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Cleveland Guardians | 37c | 89$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.93 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Cleveland Guardians | 38c | 83.57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.17 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Cleveland Guardians | 36c | 75.43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Chicago White Sox | 62c | 72.41$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed Chicago White Sox | 64c | 62.78$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.78 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Chicago White Sox | 63c | 61.48$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.48 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Cleveland Guardians | 37c | 59.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Cleveland Guardians | 37c | 54.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db0…5b69backed Cleveland Guardians | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -5.7wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -38%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Cleveland Guardians | 36c | 47.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdef6…d18fbacked Chicago White Sox | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 453 | 48.6%220 W · 233 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Chicago White Sox | 58c | 43.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Chicago White Sox | 64c | 34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Chicago White Sox | 70c | 33.9$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Chicago White Sox | 62c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Chicago White Sox | 66c | 24.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Chicago White Sox | 63c | 22.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Chicago White Sox | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 4.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 5.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-4.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White SoxNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.