MLB · resolved market
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xccac152913e838a048e30720fe93e320ac4e7d2c141d44f430d4fdc60d6c33cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,959
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,951
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,959 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 56c | 23,631$13,233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,397.74 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb85…152fbacked Over | 45c | 21,980$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Over | 44c | 7,777$3,422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,421.88 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 55c | 4,234$2,319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,914.61 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 54c | 3,102$1,675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,426.92 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 56c | 2,918$1,626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,291.84 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 44c | 2,500$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 56c | 1,440$801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.65 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Over | 44c | 1,315$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.6 | 920 | 46%423 W · 497 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 45c | 840$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.8 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Over | 44c | 778.59$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.58 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Over | 44c | 610.27$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.52 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 65c | 318.06$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.22 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 55c | 274.58$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.41 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Under | 56c | 190$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.6 | 449 | 49.2%221 W · 228 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Under | 68c | 170$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.55 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 32c | 168.2$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.22 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62d8…dd17backed Under | 57c | 166.74$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 30c | 158.55$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Under | 55c | 80$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 73c | 71.88$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.06 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Under | 56c | 71.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.48 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…f3c5backed Under | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 67c | 58.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb68c…7ef8backed Over | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…3813backed Over | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 179 | 53.1%95 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 56c | 49.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38ef…8800backed Over | 43c | 47.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 424 | 48.1%204 W · 220 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20f8…f1a7backed Over | 44c | 44.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 25c | 43.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Under | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Over | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 32c | 36.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Over | 44c | 35.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 254 | 48.4%123 W · 131 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Over | 35c | 31.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d2…4268backed Over | 44c | 22.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 147 | 53.1%78 W · 69 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 45c | 22.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 67c | 20.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa343…68d8backed Under | 55c | 18.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 69c | 17.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 4.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 5.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-4.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White SoxNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.