NBA · resolved market

Spread: Mavericks (-5.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65b5ba03556750b54ed4c49b3e5e3cf93de6f3904c47192a9920deeef8a729f5

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Mavericksof Mavericks, Bulls
Resolved: Apr 13, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $11,431
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $13,255

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,431 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9e2f…ec47backed Bulls	52c	4,067$2,115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,114.67	747	48.5%362 W · 385 L	+8.6wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24b3…a5a4backed Mavericks	48c	4,037$1,938 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,099.07	112	49.1%55 W · 57 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Bulls	52c	1,060$550 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$549.52	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbf30…8b95backed Bulls	40c	1,011$404 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$404.4	36	36.1%13 W · 23 L	-2.2wins	-0.06per pick	42cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Mavericks	48c	1,009$484 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$524.77	591	40.8%241 W · 350 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed Mavericks	60c	986.74$592 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$394.69	199	37.2%74 W · 125 L	-5.2wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-15%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Mavericks	75c	545.86$407 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$138.58	28	78.6%22 W · 6 L	+3.5wins	+0.12per pick	66cpaid	+22.8%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Bulls	14c	405.8$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.01	2,208	46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L	+42.7wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Mavericks	49c	290.82$143 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$148.32	359	42.1%151 W · 208 L	-12.9wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf97d…b295backed Bulls	54c	223.59$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.74	20	35%7 W · 13 L	-3.4wins	-0.17per pick	52cpaid	-33.5%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x06d0…7ee5backed Bulls	54c	189.49$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.33	50	40%20 W · 30 L	-4.7wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Bulls	48c	169.2$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.22	1,915	49.3%944 W · 971 L	+19.7wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b5f…7b99backed Mavericks	52c	164.33$85 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.88	382	42.9%164 W · 218 L	-11.5wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Bulls	24c	159.07$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.18	271	38.7%105 W · 166 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Bulls	27c	150$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.5	1,036	47.6%493 W · 543 L	+6.7wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1489…9924backed Mavericks	47c	115.2$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.05	193	48.2%93 W · 100 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Mavericks	46c	113.81$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.46	1,141	48%548 W · 593 L	+9.0wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10cf…1cfbbacked Bulls	53c	111.32$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59	235	49.4%116 W · 119 L	-4.1wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Mavericks	60c	97.6$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.04	2,949	51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L	+119.4wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c39…56dcbacked Bulls	25c	95.5$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.88	54	25.9%14 W · 40 L	-3.4wins	-0.06per pick	32cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Bulls	28c	80.47$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.92	454	45.2%205 W · 249 L	+5.7wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…3d0ebacked Bulls	26c	47.39$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.2	75	72%54 W · 21 L	+11.7wins	+0.16per pick	56cpaid	+22%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed Mavericks	46c	30.15$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.28	1,393	48.3%673 W · 720 L	+19.4wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbcf…20aebacked Mavericks	49c	30.05$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.33	289	43.3%125 W · 164 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Bulls	53c	27$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.31	1,048	51.7%542 W · 506 L	+7.7wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f43…d489backed Bulls	54c	25.21$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.61	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.3wins	-0.18per pick	47cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d30…5f85backed Mavericks	68c	23.91$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.65	166	53.6%89 W · 77 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Mavericks	68c	23.82$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.62	3,341	53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L	+108.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x50c3…ace1backed Bulls	54c	19.45$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	329	57.4%189 W · 140 L	+18.5wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Mavericks (-5.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event