NBA · resolved market
Spread: Mavericks (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8535384ac1e760ff8a3923d9d8d3cf3bfcab4614842b1f7c4cbc8348fc82402b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mavericksof Mavericks, Bulls
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,927
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,567
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,927 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Mavericks | 47c | 11,288$5,305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,982.51 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Bulls | 56c | 3,676$2,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,046.81 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Mavericks | 44c | 2,891$1,272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,618.85 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Bulls | 53c | 2,570$1,362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,362.32 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Bulls | 44c | 2,172$945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$945.24 | 1,282 | 43.4%557 W · 725 L | -51.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Bulls | 53c | 1,636$867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$867.27 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12b9…6312backed Mavericks | 45c | 1,610$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$885.58 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bulls | 52c | 1,572$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825.41 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7096…7f78backed Bulls | 53c | 733.43$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.72 | 653 | 49.9%326 W · 327 L | +20.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bca…0d11backed Bulls | 53c | 641.75$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.13 | 102 | 52.9%54 W · 48 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Mavericks | 48c | 630.61$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.22 | 443 | 45.1%200 W · 243 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Bulls | 53c | 600.02$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.01 | 1,286 | 50.8%653 W · 633 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Bulls | 53c | 600.02$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.01 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Bulls | 53c | 598.72$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.04 | 589 | 53.7%316 W · 273 L | +15.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Mavericks | 57c | 591.7$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.83 | 1,317 | 47.8%629 W · 688 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23f9…3c2dbacked Mavericks | 40c | 482$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.2 | 186 | 43.5%81 W · 105 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Bulls | 56c | 350.01$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.67 | 267 | 55.1%147 W · 120 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec8d…dd71backed Bulls | 53c | 323.9$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.67 | 102 | 56.9%58 W · 44 L | +9.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57e5…e51ebacked Bulls | 62c | 293.08$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.4 | 333 | 60.4%201 W · 132 L | +17.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Bulls | 12c | 277.01$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.33 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Bulls | 56c | 260.79$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.04 | 150 | 55.3%83 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Bulls | 52c | 249$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.48 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Mavericks | 75c | 230.2$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.18 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Bulls | 52c | 201.92$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 211 | 47.4%100 W · 111 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Mavericks | 38c | 166$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.92 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0c…3d4dbacked Bulls | 53c | 146.69$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.74 | 118 | 50.8%60 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Bulls | 57c | 146.13$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.29 | 775 | 49.2%381 W · 394 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e4…d947backed Bulls | 12c | 140.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Mavericks | 44c | 130$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.8 | 560 | 50.4%282 W · 278 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7157…7ba4backed Bulls | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 232 | 46.1%107 W · 125 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Bulls | 52c | 97.8$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.86 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Mavericks | 60c | 97.6$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.04 | 520 | 52.3%272 W · 248 L | +31.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c47…7a9fbacked Mavericks | 48c | 96.88$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.38 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +7.5wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +21%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Bulls | 53c | 88.43$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.87 | 1,048 | 51.7%542 W · 506 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2a…9ee3backed Mavericks | 47c | 87.14$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.18 | 852 | 48.9%417 W · 435 L | +26.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Mavericks | 42c | 74.4$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.85 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd11d…5656backed Bulls | 26c | 73.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | -10.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Bulls | 54c | 70.46$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.96 | 935 | 43.6%408 W · 527 L | -32.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd226…38b4backed Bulls | 55c | 70.06$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.53 | 394 | 48.7%192 W · 202 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…795cbacked Mavericks | 75c | 65.82$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 524 | 61.6%323 W · 201 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Mavericks | 46c | 64.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 813 | 49.4%402 W · 411 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa415…6fb9backed Bulls | 56c | 60.36$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 261 | 47.1%123 W · 138 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8038…8b15backed Bulls | 54c | 54.02$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Bulls | 54c | 54.02$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 570 | 51.9%296 W · 274 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…73fabacked Bulls | 53c | 48.59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 169 | 51.5%87 W · 82 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Bulls | 53c | 45.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…0fb4backed Bulls | 53c | 45.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 378 | 53.4%202 W · 176 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Mavericks | 48c | 43.95$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.69 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33eb…b07ebacked Mavericks | 69c | 42.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Bulls | 54c | 36.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9d…527bbacked Mavericks | 56c | 34.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.49 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd7…b0f5backed Mavericks | 45c | 32.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Bulls | 41c | 32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 898 | 50.9%457 W · 441 L | +19.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked Mavericks | 59c | 31.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…4dd5backed Bulls | 43c | 29.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 112 | 32.1%36 W · 76 L | -17.3wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Mavericks | 43c | 28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Mavericks | 43c | 23.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 160 | 20%32 W · 128 L | -27.0wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…456bbacked Bulls | 53c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 185 | 48.1%89 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Mavericks (-7.5)this page
- Bulls vs. MavericksMavericks won
- Bulls vs. Mavericks: O/U 245.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Mavericks: O/U 246.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Mavericks: O/U 248.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Mavericks: O/U 249.5Over won
- Spread: Mavericks (-5.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Mavericks (-6.5)Mavericks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.