NBA · resolved market
Bulls vs. Mavericks: O/U 248.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe209d416f62deb3846d28631d7a01f72eb1516a2e4d32183e73fdd1e084eabaa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,867
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,120
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,867 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbedb…3b26backed Under | 50c | 14,826$7,413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,412.93 | 163 | 46.6%76 W · 87 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 50c | 10,628$5,314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,314 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 52c | 1,680$874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$806.48 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 50c | 1,675$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$834.94 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 49c | 1,117$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.26 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 52c | 1,028$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.21 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Under | 47c | 750.14$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.57 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a84…0e54backed Over | 52c | 730.4$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.59 | 142 | 48.6%69 W · 73 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3242…0e0bbacked Over | 53c | 673.98$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.77 | 212 | 47.2%100 W · 112 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 49c | 666.94$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.09 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 60c | 468.98$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.39 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 48c | 460$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.8 | 620 | 51.1%317 W · 303 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…78edbacked Over | 52c | 403.42$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.64 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90d9…56c4backed Over | 51c | 333.05$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.19 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7cfa…9743backed Over | 50c | 325.45$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.48 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b39…7fbcbacked Over | 52c | 268.95$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.09 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fea…78b1backed Under | 6c | 227.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 263 | 37.3%98 W · 165 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x878c…2f83backed Under | 51c | 190.31$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.06 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 51c | 184.41$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.36 | 428 | 53%227 W · 201 L | +7.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 28c | 148.87$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.01 | 1,317 | 47.8%629 W · 688 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca2b…e77abacked Over | 51c | 111.62$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.69 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Over | 51c | 98.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.03 | 498 | 52.6%262 W · 236 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Under | 50c | 97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0c…3d4dbacked Under | 50c | 97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 118 | 50.8%60 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0152…b455backed Over | 51c | 95.16$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.63 | 660 | 46.4%306 W · 354 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Over | 57c | 92.29$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.69 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x088d…3516backed Under | 50c | 87.3$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.65 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Over | 50c | 85$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 1,399 | 46.4%649 W · 750 L | -13.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 51c | 79.62$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.88 | 1,048 | 51.7%542 W · 506 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd226…38b4backed Over | 52c | 78.65$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.99 | 394 | 48.7%192 W · 202 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Under | 50c | 67.9$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 377 | 55.7%210 W · 167 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 51c | 64.92$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.81 | 360 | 51.7%186 W · 174 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea15…a9dabacked Under | 51c | 57.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 49c | 56.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b45…ac9fbacked Under | 26c | 54.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 110 | 40%44 W · 66 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e80…9cebbacked Over | 51c | 47.61$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf5…e7c3backed Under | 50c | 42.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5367…dfc1backed Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Under | 30c | 37.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb657…55c6backed Under | 50c | 32.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -5.5wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Under | 49c | 29.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 100 | 40%40 W · 60 L | -7.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3169…6dccbacked Under | 50c | 28.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | +8.8wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c2…5509backed Over | 58c | 25.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Over | 57c | 24.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 331 | 59.2%196 W · 135 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x907d…2c9bbacked Over | 51c | 22.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bulls vs. Mavericks: O/U 248.5this page
- Bulls vs. MavericksMavericks won
- Bulls vs. Mavericks: O/U 245.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Mavericks: O/U 246.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Mavericks: O/U 249.5Over won
- Spread: Mavericks (-5.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Mavericks (-6.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Mavericks (-7.5)Mavericks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.