NBA · resolved market
Bulls vs. Mavericks: O/U 246.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49b667084f18b26041e21802578a425b9ca4c91bc0bea3676b8efa6afc05ee9d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,670
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,465
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,670 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 46c | 3,431$1,589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,588.86 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ca…9ef8backed Over | 56c | 1,391$779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.23 | 285 | 54.7%156 W · 129 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Over | 49c | 800$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 52c | 765.25$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.12 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 54c | 762.87$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.92 | 637 | 46.6%297 W · 340 L | -16.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Under | 46c | 742.15$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.39 | 313 | 54.3%170 W · 143 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 8c | 657.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.59 | 1,317 | 47.8%629 W · 688 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Over | 54c | 508.58$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.95 | 906 | 50.2%455 W · 451 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 52c | 337.77$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.64 | 1,433 | 47.2%676 W · 757 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 54c | 254.28$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.97 | 1,084 | 50%542 W · 542 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 54c | 254.28$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.97 | 1,286 | 50.8%653 W · 633 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Over | 54c | 254.28$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.97 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 45c | 193.19$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.94 | 1,399 | 46.4%649 W · 750 L | -13.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb69…c773backed Under | 51c | 190.31$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.06 | 131 | 48.9%64 W · 67 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x878c…2f83backed Under | 51c | 190.31$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.06 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 44c | 172.3$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.81 | 1,277 | 47.2%603 W · 674 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf433…2464backed Under | 52c | 149.42$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.7 | 144 | 44.4%64 W · 80 L | -10.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7312…df72backed Under | 23c | 142.13$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 105 | 23.8%25 W · 80 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2db1…45e5backed Over | 51c | 141.75$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.94 | 248 | 49.6%123 W · 125 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8f…4374backed Under | 47c | 123.7$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.09 | 201 | 46.8%94 W · 107 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Over | 53c | 122.77$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.7 | 813 | 49.4%402 W · 411 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 53c | 117.71$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.85 | 935 | 43.6%408 W · 527 L | -32.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x641f…049abacked Over | 48c | 90.83$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.23 | 180 | 54.4%98 W · 82 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 46c | 79.51$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.42 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Under | 42c | 74.14$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.14 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…2022backed Over | 58c | 72.27$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.35 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd80…5ef4backed Over | 54c | 72.03$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.13 | 116 | 53.4%62 W · 54 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Under | 52c | 58.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 51c | 58.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under | 47c | 54.59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 554 | 44.4%246 W · 308 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 53c | 52.54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee60…6902backed Over | 50c | 47.35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 376 | 65.4%246 W · 130 L | +62.0wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ee…0f22backed Under | 47c | 47.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 387 | 36.4%141 W · 246 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…0fb4backed Over | 54c | 45.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 378 | 53.4%202 W · 176 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 48c | 43.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.57 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked Over | 54c | 41.62$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 319 | 53%169 W · 150 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x130b…0e07backed Under | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +36%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b59…2044backed Under | 52c | 37.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 54c | 34.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 1,048 | 51.7%542 W · 506 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Over | 50c | 33.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.98 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Under | 44c | 28.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 218 | 43.6%95 W · 123 L | -15.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Under | 46c | 27.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd25c…fe19backed Over | 48c | 26.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 176 | 52.3%92 W · 84 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 44c | 25.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Over | 66c | 24.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 331 | 59.2%196 W · 135 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Under | 44c | 24.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 238 | 40.8%97 W · 141 L | -16.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54a6…7401backed Over | 53c | 20.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 54c | 19.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 355 | 46.5%165 W · 190 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b4…168fbacked Over | 70c | 16.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bulls vs. Mavericks: O/U 246.5this page
- Bulls vs. MavericksMavericks won
- Bulls vs. Mavericks: O/U 245.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Mavericks: O/U 248.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Mavericks: O/U 249.5Over won
- Spread: Mavericks (-5.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Mavericks (-6.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Mavericks (-7.5)Mavericks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.