TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 16?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,664
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,292

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,664 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8882…03fbbacked Yes29c845.56$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.2951733.3%172 W · 345 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31af…5c86backed Yes24c144.4$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.2931836.8%117 W · 201 L+8.2wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes19c139.97$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.261,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No77c124.35$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.28,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No80c103$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.033,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7db…959bbacked Yes19c101.84$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191,01825.5%260 W · 758 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes20c96.52$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4310,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd119…ebddbacked No72c95.32$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.914097.5%39 W · 1 L+16.9wins+0.42per pick55cpaid+112.4%equal weight79+0.26 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked Yes19c93.83$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.832,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No57c92.23$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.743,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ae…8f23backed Yes19c75.25$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3293.4%1 W · 28 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick9cpaid-79.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd353…9ac2backed No67c75.09$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.096264.5%40 W · 22 L+8.5wins+0.14per pick51cpaid+24%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc756…0ec3backed Yes28c74.55$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.813266.7%88 W · 44 L+10.5wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+14.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x47f7…0312backed No78c73.12$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.3614663%92 W · 54 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9388…ad42backed No80c72.67$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.8613959.7%83 W · 56 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6780…41ccbacked Yes30c69.97$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9127051.1%138 W · 132 L-13.3wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-6.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No66c53.32$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.342,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No78c51$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.324,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x879d…b501backed Yes28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1460519.7%119 W · 486 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed No79c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.7589661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d3e…c49ebacked No79c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.51,11065%722 W · 388 L+38.1wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x006c…154ebacked Yes24c44.8$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.715354.7%29 W · 24 L+5.4wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+31.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x347b…c9bcbacked No75c42.94$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.7320173.1%147 W · 54 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick74cpaid+0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe8e…cfaabacked No77c42.61$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.819039.5%75 W · 115 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No71c41.4$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.1565353.4%349 W · 304 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05e1…4c1ebacked No80c40$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$849675.4%374 W · 122 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No71c34.81$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.952,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d60…6df2backed No77c34.28$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.9425766.1%170 W · 87 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-5.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No74c33.5$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.775,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No77c33.48$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.851,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf576…a786backed No77c33.36$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.8237669.4%261 W · 115 L+1.6wins0.00per pick69cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No76c32.75$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No70c31.98$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.594,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No69c25$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.752,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x72a4…9240backed No77c24.99$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.753571.4%25 W · 10 L+0.1wins0.00per pick71cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No72c24.78$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.034,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed No61c23.32$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.081,01860.2%613 W · 405 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No71c21$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.094,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7e16…7f14backed No76c20.93$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.0222064.5%142 W · 78 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No76c19$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.652,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3164…3c65backed No80c18$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.644465.3%290 W · 154 L+0.8wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No64c17.11$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.222,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No64c16.24$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.92,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No76c14.66$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.523,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.