Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65e0e9d856344f60c284e59b3d05d2603900c644342e3baf355362d934444d7c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,664
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,292
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,664 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 29c | 845.56$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.29 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 24c | 144.4$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.29 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 19c | 139.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 77c | 124.35$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 80c | 103$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.03 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 19c | 101.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 20c | 96.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd119…ebddbacked No | 72c | 95.32$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.91 | 40 | 97.5%39 W · 1 L | +16.9wins | +0.42per pick | 55cpaid | +112.4%equal weight | 79+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 19c | 93.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 57c | 92.23$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.74 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ae…8f23backed Yes | 19c | 75.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 29 | 3.4%1 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…9ac2backed No | 67c | 75.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.09 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc756…0ec3backed Yes | 28c | 74.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 132 | 66.7%88 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47f7…0312backed No | 78c | 73.12$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 146 | 63%92 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9388…ad42backed No | 80c | 72.67$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 139 | 59.7%83 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 30c | 69.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 66c | 53.32$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 78c | 51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 79c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 79c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x006c…154ebacked Yes | 24c | 44.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked No | 75c | 42.94$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 201 | 73.1%147 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked No | 77c | 42.61$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 71c | 41.4$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 71c | 34.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 77c | 34.28$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 33.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 77c | 33.48$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 77c | 33.36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 76c | 32.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 31.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72a4…9240backed No | 77c | 24.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 72c | 24.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 61c | 23.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 76c | 20.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 76c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 80c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 64c | 17.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 64c | 16.24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 76c | 14.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.