Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on July 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65eb64c91edc8d770c7a43524c5f33028aac9af1b79f164078be7edf0e8d0e9e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,758
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,998
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,758 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 19c | 212.48$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.85 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 21c | 200$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.63 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 27c | 199.97$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.99 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 75c | 175.17$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.21 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 17c | 153$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 23c | 148.41$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 134.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 26c | 134.12$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.59 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 38c | 115.9$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84e3…3dfdbacked No | 73c | 82.66$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 148 | 78.4%116 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 26c | 80.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x106b…267dbacked Yes | 25c | 65.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 21c | 64.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 35c | 63.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 74c | 59.74$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 20c | 58.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 76c | 58.06$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 19c | 57.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 50.81$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 28c | 50.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x701d…d115backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3797…efeabacked Yes | 23c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd526…3d7cbacked No | 50c | 48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed No | 64c | 44.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 76c | 43.83$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 59c | 43.58$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8c…23c8backed No | 62c | 37.34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 42c | 36.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 47c | 32.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 36c | 31.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…a32abacked Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 35c | 29.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 73c | 28.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 77c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 54c | 23.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 23.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 78c | 21.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 75c | 19.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 80c | 18.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 79c | 15.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…55bfbacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 83 | 85.5%71 W · 12 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 78cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on July 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C or higher on July 14?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.