Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2cfb87a029c02e341dd6c1c628f2b69d56d41510264fb7342bb0d56a58472c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,818
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,501
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,818 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 43c | 579$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.19 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 33c | 199.96$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.99 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 57c | 152$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.36 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 117.09$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.48 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 35c | 98.1$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.09 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 67c | 97.52$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.52 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 68c | 88.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 56c | 81.95$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.68 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 79.7$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.17 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 35c | 61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 32c | 60.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 36c | 52.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 43c | 51.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 50.83$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3797…efeabacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 69c | 49.41$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 43c | 46.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 57c | 43.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed No | 57c | 43.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x61b9…07dfbacked Yes | 45c | 43.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 29c | 43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 45c | 41.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 34c | 41.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 60c | 39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 35c | 35.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 56c | 33.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 65c | 28.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f70…891dbacked No | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 60c | 23.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 73c | 22.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 69c | 21.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 57c | 19.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C or higher on July 14?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.