Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C or higher on July 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ec0cce14fa0831953cc22f6b096c3981061b5df91890ab029bf904c61a3d701
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,331
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,168
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,331 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 15c | 332.1$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.2 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 11c | 266.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.31 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 17c | 201.18$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.43 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 12c | 181.22$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.31 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked Yes | 77c | 172.44$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.99 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 51c | 163.14$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.51 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 16c | 140$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 16c | 126$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 60c | 117.29$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.29 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 10c | 105.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.84 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed Yes | 77c | 103.11$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f70…891dbacked Yes | 59c | 96.51$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.43 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 53c | 95.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.38 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 13c | 89.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.74 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7a…07a0backed Yes | 77c | 86.86$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 63c | 78.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.72 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 78c | 78.62$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36ef…3c3abacked Yes | 21c | 76.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.29 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 14c | 72.24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.24 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…5961backed Yes | 76c | 71.51$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +8.2wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 35c | 68.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 58c | 67.51$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.37 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 17c | 67.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 52c | 62.41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.04 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc0…1843backed No | 80c | 60$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 20c | 54.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.46 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 45c | 49.71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8c…23c8backed No | 49c | 47.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…a32abacked Yes | 55c | 47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 56c | 46.31$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 79c | 42.6$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.83 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48c8…4ccabacked No | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 29c | 41.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.74 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 76c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 71c | 37.55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b36…0d4bbacked Yes | 54c | 36.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0579…7b4bbacked Yes | 57c | 35.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfed…e080backed No | 79c | 35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 75c | 33.54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 80c | 32.69$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 76c | 32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47e9…732cbacked No | 79c | 29.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 47c | 29.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 62c | 29.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe010…5147backed No | 51c | 28.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -17.1wins | -0.29per pick | 59cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 27-0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 74c | 26.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2146…3c18backed No | 78c | 25.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 75c | 24.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 79c | 23.45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 62c | 22.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78c2…53adbacked Yes | 67c | 19.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 77c | 18.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…55bfbacked No | 79c | 15.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 83 | 85.5%71 W · 12 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 78cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 78c | 13.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 80c | 13.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.76 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3e…c58bbacked No | 79c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C or higher on July 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on July 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.