Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66152bc03dd58267edadb7eb2f126d80b8c63222dd8141dbb610d9842939f32b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,745
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,041
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,745 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ccf…cd14backed Yes | 1c | 4,598$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.42 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 75c | 1,116$838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$837.85 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e1…c152backed Yes | 10c | 792.39$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.11 | 202 | 31.2%63 W · 139 L | +22.2wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed No | 66c | 657.04$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.21 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb3…2bb6backed Yes | 11c | 545.42$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 26c | 500.21$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.39 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 16c | 404$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.36 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked Yes | 10c | 290$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 32c | 225.11$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.2 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 19c | 190.66$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.43 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed No | 27c | 185.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.18 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 65c | 172.27$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.67 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…4c78backed No | 21c | 152.22$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.08 | 68 | 17.6%12 W · 56 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 34c | 150$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 21c | 103.13$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.65 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 34c | 87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 36c | 81.88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 34c | 74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec47…0c22backed No | 25c | 64.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.64 | 182 | 22%40 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed No | 63c | 60.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a53…1ee8backed No | 17c | 59.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.79 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 64c | 58.46$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 25c | 57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed No | 32c | 54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 25c | 54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 25c | 54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 25c | 51.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.72 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 69c | 51.1$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…7434backed No | 54c | 50.45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.21 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 74c | 47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.79 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 33c | 46.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 42c | 39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 28c | 38.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked Yes | 33c | 35.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d3…a178backed No | 34c | 33.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.82 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 47c | 32.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 66c | 32.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked No | 65c | 25.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2052…e9bbbacked Yes | 69c | 25.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 75c | 22.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 76c | 20.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 64c | 20.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 62c | 17.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x948f…0b98backed Yes | 59c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 119 | 83.2%99 W · 20 L | +21.5wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on July 6?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on July 6?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on July 6?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on July 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.