Serie A · resolved market
Spread: Bologna FC 1909 (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66295685548c597ea1bdf22da9dea79386ab3454d84532694b6f7d21773dcf14
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hellas Verona FCof Bologna FC 1909, Hellas Verona FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,867
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,867 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Hellas Verona FC | 68c | 2,575$1,740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$835.72 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Hellas Verona FC | 66c | 2,272$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$772.48 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +6.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Bologna FC 1909 | 34c | 2,132$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.88 | 223 | 48.4%108 W · 115 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Bologna FC 1909 | 28c | 1,461$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.6 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4844…32c9backed Bologna FC 1909 | 33c | 909.09$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x054b…afd5backed Bologna FC 1909 | 42c | 477.11$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Hellas Verona FC | 66c | 370.51$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.97 | 405 | 49.6%201 W · 204 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Bologna FC 1909 | 19c | 294.08$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.71 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeddf…a953backed Bologna FC 1909 | 35c | 286$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8034…2463backed Hellas Verona FC | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 34 | 76.5%26 W · 8 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked Bologna FC 1909 | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 158 | 44.9%71 W · 87 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Hellas Verona FC | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 152 | 59.9%91 W · 61 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefb9…e74fbacked Hellas Verona FC | 65c | 99.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.9 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Hellas Verona FC | 65c | 79.71$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 168 | 38.1%64 W · 104 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Hellas Verona FC | 65c | 67.95$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 498 | 50.6%252 W · 246 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Bologna FC 1909 | 25c | 57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 96 | 61.5%59 W · 37 L | +10.2wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x997b…801ebacked Hellas Verona FC | 75c | 57$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Hellas Verona FC | 67c | 54$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 491 | 37.5%184 W · 307 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Bologna FC 1909 | 25c | 50.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 162 | 19.1%31 W · 131 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8142…f311backed Bologna FC 1909 | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -4.2wins | -0.22per pick | 48cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Bologna FC 1909 | 32c | 49.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 181 | 25.4%46 W · 135 L | -18.7wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Bologna FC 1909 | 33c | 37.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 285 | 56.1%160 W · 125 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f14…c845backed Hellas Verona FC | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +4.5wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Bologna FC 1909 | 32c | 37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 188 | 58.5%110 W · 78 L | +16.6wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d5c…1768backed Hellas Verona FC | 65c | 33.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0112…4fe9backed Bologna FC 1909 | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Bologna FC 1909 | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9856…7014backed Hellas Verona FC | 65c | 22.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 31 | 80.6%25 W · 6 L | +6.5wins | +0.21per pick | 60cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0f…48fdbacked Hellas Verona FC | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bologna FC 1909 (-1.5)this page
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. Hellas Verona FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. Hellas Verona FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. Hellas Verona FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. Hellas Verona FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. Hellas Verona FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Bologna FC 1909 (-2.5)Hellas Verona FC won
- Spread: Hellas Verona FC (-1.5)Bologna FC 1909 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.