Europa Conference League · resolved market
ACF Fiorentina vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x662e1d87090f7dfe48281b8e6feffbcf638a588194ffbcf3b246865f80c14891
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,581
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,170
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,581 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x53f2…defdbacked Under | 12c | 1,465$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.3 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 11c | 494.31$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.53 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 27c | 408.86$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.24 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Under | 26c | 401.88$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.49 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Over | 78c | 285.21$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.39 | 130 | 67.7%88 W · 42 L | +12.8wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d62…5409backed Over | 74c | 266.19$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.31 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…3ff9backed Under | 27c | 163.97$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.27 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c97…f237backed Over | 73c | 157.27$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 27c | 150.97$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.76 | 919 | 50.9%468 W · 451 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…572dbacked Over | 68c | 137.34$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802f…e008backed Over | 74c | 133.03$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.59 | 83 | 69.9%58 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf00e…00f4backed Over | 74c | 133.03$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.59 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 62cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 29c | 116.67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0095…42c1backed Over | 71c | 110.72$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.11 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d2…2be9backed Over | 74c | 93.89$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.41 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 26c | 69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 28c | 61.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 33c | 59.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 380 | 47.4%180 W · 200 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5913…3bbebacked Over | 74c | 53.21$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 107 | 61.7%66 W · 41 L | +7.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 74c | 33.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 80 | 62.5%50 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe083…d0d5backed Over | 70c | 29.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d08…3f86backed Over | 70c | 28.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed Over | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5769…a5dabacked Over | 74c | 26.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 76cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a5…37a5backed Over | 75c | 26.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x241e…04cbbacked Over | 75c | 19.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61bb…1627backed Over | 72c | 19.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 73cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- ACF Fiorentina vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 1.5this page
- ACF Fiorentina vs. Crystal Palace FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- ACF Fiorentina vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- ACF Fiorentina vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- ACF Fiorentina vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: ACF Fiorentina (-1.5)Crystal Palace FC won
- Spread: ACF Fiorentina (-2.5)Crystal Palace FC won
- Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-1.5)ACF Fiorentina won
- Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-2.5)ACF Fiorentina won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.