Europa Conference League · resolved market
Spread: ACF Fiorentina (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x665344de87679d8b483e02cb5279b313f5233960dd429f4a1c7c0d9c57a03531
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Crystal Palace FCof ACF Fiorentina, Crystal Palace FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,061
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,087
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,061 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked ACF Fiorentina | 10c | 1,378$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.22 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed ACF Fiorentina | 25c | 1,135$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.54 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…3ff9backed ACF Fiorentina | 14c | 969.29$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.01 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Crystal Palace FC | 72c | 561.14$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.73 | 771 | 41.8%322 W · 449 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed ACF Fiorentina | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -11.8wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x9c55…7ef8backed ACF Fiorentina | 14c | 500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…3933backed ACF Fiorentina | 11c | 473.3$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.06 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed ACF Fiorentina | 12c | 416.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc514…e9b4backed ACF Fiorentina | 12c | 315.42$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.85 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +4.1wins | +0.13per pick | 19cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed ACF Fiorentina | 14c | 237.25$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.21 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed ACF Fiorentina | 23c | 164.91$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.26 | 67 | 22.4%15 W · 52 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…1973backed ACF Fiorentina | 30c | 160.19$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.9 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed ACF Fiorentina | 26c | 138.42$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 2,175 | 37.6%817 W · 1,358 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e6…3cd2backed ACF Fiorentina | 9c | 133.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee7…f36ebacked Crystal Palace FC | 76c | 129.37$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9073…13b3backed ACF Fiorentina | 12c | 110.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed ACF Fiorentina | 23c | 104.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 160 | 13.1%21 W · 139 L | -18.8wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -47%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x30bb…f258backed ACF Fiorentina | 26c | 103.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9691…c6e7backed ACF Fiorentina | 11c | 94.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked ACF Fiorentina | 12c | 94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 706 | 39.5%279 W · 427 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d39…a4fbbacked ACF Fiorentina | 31c | 92.85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.2wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c0…e44bbacked ACF Fiorentina | 28c | 47.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked ACF Fiorentina | 23c | 44.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 23cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Crystal Palace FC | 72c | 42.05$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Crystal Palace FC | 75c | 31.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 146 | 54.1%79 W · 67 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3e…7857backed Crystal Palace FC | 77c | 27.13$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Crystal Palace FC | 75c | 26.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x659f…04e4backed Crystal Palace FC | 77c | 19.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Crystal Palace FC | 77c | 19.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 145 | 52.4%76 W · 69 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Crystal Palace FC | 77c | 19.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Crystal Palace FC | 77c | 19.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45cf…0f46backed Crystal Palace FC | 76c | 15.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.66 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: ACF Fiorentina (-1.5)this page
- ACF Fiorentina vs. Crystal Palace FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- ACF Fiorentina vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- ACF Fiorentina vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- ACF Fiorentina vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- ACF Fiorentina vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: ACF Fiorentina (-2.5)Crystal Palace FC won
- Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-1.5)ACF Fiorentina won
- Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-2.5)ACF Fiorentina won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.